Wednesday, December 12, 2012

NBA Premium Play 12/11: Washington Wizards @ New Orleans Hornets


NBA - 507 Washington Wizards @ 508 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: 184 points | New Orleans by 2 points

New Orleans' offense is mostly based on pick and rolls and 3pts shooting, but they will face a tough Wizards' defense tonight. Washington is #9 in isolation defense, #7 in pick and roll ball handler defense, #18 in pick and roll roll man defense and #14 in spot up defense. The Hornets like to attempt a lot of shots from 16-23 feet, but the Wizards' defense is #1 in the league in FG% allowed from that area of the court.

Washington is a jump shooting team, but considering the Hornets' poor perimeter defense, they may have some success on offense tonight. They've already had some success against teams with poor perimeter defenses (win against Portland, win against Miami and a close loss against Golden State) and I expect them to have some success tonight against the Hornets as well.

Considering the slow pace that the Hornets like to insert on their games, I expect this game to be a slow paced game, with the Wizards causing a lot of problems to the Hornets' offense due to their good pick and roll defense, while Washington may have some success on their jump shots, but this success will only be moderate, as the Wizards' are prone to show some struggles on half court sets as well. I expect a very close low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking both the Wizards and the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Washington Wizards (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

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