NBA - 803 Boston Celtics @ 804 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Line: Boston by 5 points
On the first game of the season between these two teams, Philadelphia had a super offensive game. The Celtics showed a tremendous lack of speed on the perimeter, as the Sixers' guards would easily get through the Celtics' backcourt and as Boston lacks a shot blocker, Philadelphia would easily score. This is why they shot 10-10 FG in transition plays! Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday had all big games and this was due to penetrations and easy scores down low. Boston was a good perimeter offensive team once again, with a great ball movement, as they had 31 assists, with Rajon Rondo having 20 assists! Both teams defended well pick and rolls, but Boston punished Philadelphia from the outside with 9-20 FG on spot ups, 5-5 FG on cuts and 7-11 FG on off screens! The Celtics' bad rebounding was the key for their loss, as Philadelphia was able to push the ball in transition, while outscoring the Celtics by 26-9 on fast break points and 56-38 in points in the paint.
Philadelphia got crushed by Minnesota's perimeter offense on their last game. Their defensive decline has been evident lately, as their season average of defensive rates is 104.92, while they are averaging a defensive rating of 112.50 over the last 10 games! The Sixers are also allowing 69% FG at the rim over the last 10 games, their pick and roll ball handler defense is also getting much worse, while their post up defense is also regressing a lot lately. This defensive regression is normal because Philadelphia doesn't have a good enough roster to be a top defensive team this season and with Jrue Holiday spending so much energy on offense, he just can't defend at the level he showed last season.
Both teams shoot a lot from 16-23 feet, with Boston being #3 on volume from this area and Philadelphia being #4. The main difference is that Boston is #2 on FG% from this area, while Philadelphia is #30! On the other hand, Boston is #11 on 16-23 feet defense, while Philadelphia is #16. Meanwhile, one of the main problems that Boston's defense was suffering has been solved. Doc Rivers is using more their frontcourt players (Chris Wilcox, Jared Sullinger and Brandon Bass) to make his team be more physical. In fact, over the last five games, Boston's opponents shot just 74-139 (53%) FG at the rim! Philadelphia's offense is completely dependent from Jrue Holiday right now, but Rajon Rondo will be a tough opponent.
I like Boston to win in here, as this will be a jump shooting contest and the Celtics are clearly better than the Sixers on this department. Philadelphia with no references down low are a good matchup for Boston. As the Celtics aren't on a tough spot for tonight, I expect them to defend well the Sixers and then, outshoot them from the perimeter. Therefore, I'll be taking Boston in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Boston Celtics (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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