Projected Line: Denver by 8 points
This is a terrible spot for Detroit, as they will play their fourth game in five days tonight. The Pistons are coming from a road loss at Philadelphia last night, where Brandon Knight played 38 minutes, Greg Monroe 35 minutes and Tayshaun Prince 37 minutes. Detroit's offense likes to play close to the basket and they attempt a lot of shots at the rim. It's not Greg Monroe who attempts those shots near the basket, as it's the Pistons' backcourt that likes to penetrate into the basket. Denver's weakest part on defense is their perimeter defense, so with the Pistons' backcourt penetrating into the basket instead of shooting from the perimeter, Denver's defense should be fine tonight. The Pistons' offense likes to use pick and roll ball handler plays, post ups, spot ups and transitions plays, while Denver's defense is #3 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #10 on post up defense, #10 on transition defense and #27 on spot ups defense, so I believe the Nuggets will be able to do a good defensive job tonight against the tired Pistons.
This is a terrible spot for Detroit, as they will play their fourth game in five days tonight. The Pistons are coming from a road loss at Philadelphia last night, where Brandon Knight played 38 minutes, Greg Monroe 35 minutes and Tayshaun Prince 37 minutes. Detroit's offense likes to play close to the basket and they attempt a lot of shots at the rim. It's not Greg Monroe who attempts those shots near the basket, as it's the Pistons' backcourt that likes to penetrate into the basket. Denver's weakest part on defense is their perimeter defense, so with the Pistons' backcourt penetrating into the basket instead of shooting from the perimeter, Denver's defense should be fine tonight. The Pistons' offense likes to use pick and roll ball handler plays, post ups, spot ups and transitions plays, while Denver's defense is #3 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #10 on post up defense, #10 on transition defense and #27 on spot ups defense, so I believe the Nuggets will be able to do a good defensive job tonight against the tired Pistons.
These two teams have already faced each other at Denver this season and the Nuggets comfortably won that game. Denver pounded the Pistons' interior defense with 25-38 FG at the rim and 56 points at the paint. Kenneth Faried shot 7-10 FG, Kostas Koufos 7-13 FG and even JaVale McGee shot 7-11 FG! Denver also dominated on the boards by grabbing 21 offensive rebounds and 61.2% of the rebounds. Greg Monroe had a big game with 10-20 FG, 27 points and 10 rebounds, but the Pistons still only shot 15-31 FG at the rim, while having no dynamic on the backcourt.
Detroit's backcourt defense is being horrible lately and their second unit's defense is a complete disaster. Ty Lawson will have a great matchup on offense tonight. Detroit is also being horrible on rebounding lately and they are last in the league in defensive rebounding rate. Therefore, I expect Denver to outrebounded the Pistons big time tonight, while getting a lot of second chance points in here. With Denver having a rebounding edge, a spot edge and a backcourt edge, I believe the Nuggets will have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Denver Nuggets (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Denver Nuggets (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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