Projected Line: New England by 8 points
This is a very interesting game, as not only it may decide a lot on the playoff race, as it puts a top offense going to head-to-head against a top defense. Both teams are currently riding on a six games winning streak, so this is indeed one of the most expected games of the season so far. Even though there's a lot of people thinking that this will be a very close game, I expect Tom Brady and the Patriots to put on a clinic tonight and comfortably beat the Texans in here.
Even though Houston has been a top defense this season, they have been struggling a bit against good passing teams. They got crushed at home against Green Bay by 24-42 and they needed a lot of luck to defeat Detroit on Thanksgiving by 34-31 on overtime. The main reason for these struggles have been some important injuries on defense that has put them a bit weaker, especially on coverage. Brian Cushing went down with a season-ending knee injury and with that, the Texans saw their great defensive level decrease a bit and recent injuries on the secondary, especially with CB Jonathan Joseph being banged up with a hamstring injury has turned the Texans into a less tougher target for good passing teams such as Green Bay and Detroit. Tom Brady has been having a great season, he has thrown 25 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions and with his offensive line being at a good level, I expect New England to handle the Texans' good pass rush tonight and give time for Brady to select the best matchups down the field to pound the banged up Texans' secondary. New England has also been surprisingly good on their running game and with RB Brandon Bolden likely to be re-activated tonight, the Patriots will have another option to run against Houston tonight. New England is a very well-balanced offensive team right now and I don't believe Houston is healthy enough on the secondary to stop Tom Brady at home on a National TV game, where he uses to play his best football.
On the other hand, Houston likes to use a more conservative style on offense than New England, while using Arian Foster and Ben Tate to pound the football on the running game. However, New England has been surprisingly good on their run defense this season by being #7 in the league with just 3.9 rushing yards allowed per carry. The Texans' running game isn't being very effective this season by being just #19 on the league with 4.1 rushing yards per carry, therefore I believe the Patriots will be able to limit Houston's running game tonight. Also note that New England's longest run allowed this season was just for 20 years (#1 in the league!). With the Texans being limited on their running game, Matt Schaub will need to throw more the football that he is used to do this season. Veteran WR Andre Johnson has been playing well over the last few weeks, but he will suffer a tough coverage tonight, as Houston doesn't have a great number of quality receivers, especially with TE Owen Daniels banged up with a back injury. New England is also #1 in the league with 33 takeaways this season, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans end up turning over the football a couple of times tonight. The Patriots are also #1 in the league in turnovers committed with just 9, so I believe New England will once again have a positive turnover margin tonight, something that will only help him in comfortably winning tonight's game.
Not only New England has a lot more offensive weapons than Houston, as the Patriots also have defensive weapons to stop Houston's running game. The Patriots need to make a statement game tonight, not only to show themselves as SuperBowl contenders once again, but also to get closer to Houston for the #1 seed in the AFC. I believe New England is going to have a comfortable win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 134 New England Patriots (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment