NBA - 705 Atlanta Hawks @ 706 Miami Heat
Projected Line: Miami by 10 points
Atlanta has been playing very well lately and they're coming from a super win at Memphis, where they used a big starting lineup. However, I doubt that they will be able to have the same effort today, while playing their third game in four nights. For tonight, Larry Drew will definitely use a small lineup with Josh Smith in the PF position and Al Horford as Center, while using a backcourt with three guards. The Hawks' defense reminds me of the former Nuggets' defense that would force turnovers and then would quickly attack in transition. That's why Atlanta is #2 on opponent turnover rate, while being #4 on fast break points per game. However, Miami is #5 on TO rate with just 14.4% and then, they won't give the Hawks a lot of transition chances tonight.
It looks like DeShawn Stevenson is still struggling physically and so, Atlanta won't have a good defensive backcourt. Devin Harris will struggle to defend Dwayne Wade, while Josh Smith will have to defend Lebron James. Smith is coming from a super effort at Memphis, where he shot 10-17 FG and had 23 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals, while defending Rudy Gay for 40 minutes! Now against Lebron, I expect him to struggle on this poor spot for him. Miami is looking forward for this game to have a statement win and this is a great spot for them. I'm taking the Heat in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Miami Heat (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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