NBA - 809 Golden State Warriors @ 810 Brooklyn Nets
Projected Line: 190 points | Brooklyn by 3 points
Golden State is coming from a good win at Detroit, where they were very well on pick and rolls and spot ups, with both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry having good games. They are definitely improved lately on their perimeter shooting, while they are also #5 on pick and roll ball handler, #6 on post ups, #5 on spot ups and #9 on cuts. So, it's important to know how the Nets' defense will be able to respond tonight. They are #10 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #25 on post ups defense, #19 on spot up defense and #9 on cuts defense. The Warriors might have a decent offensive game tonight, but I doubt it will be as good as it was in Detroit's, as after their excellent second half against the Pistons, a letdown is likely to happen tonight.
Brooklyn has pretty much given up on post ups without Brook Lopez and on pick and rolls. The Nets are pretty much using a combination of spot ups and cuts on offense, with Deron Williams attacking the basket and then passing the ball to the outside or Gerald Wallace and the rest of the backcourt attacking the basket to score. Golden State is #12 on spot up defense, but they are much better lately, while they are #24 on cuts.
Golden State defeated Brooklyn at home earlier on the season, on a poor spot for the Nets, as they had played against the Lakers on the night before. Brooklyn started well the game with 30 points in the first quarter, with 18 of them coming from the paint. That made coach Mark Jackson to go into a 1-2-2 zone and that crushed the Nets' offense. This can be the key for tonight's gamce once again. Brooklyn won't dominate the paint tonight without Brook Lopez, so they won't crush the Warriors down low like they did on the first game with 21-23 FG at the rim and 4-6 FG from 3-9 feet. But as soon as Golden State adjusted on defense, the Nets shot terribly from the perimeter with 5-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-23 3pts! Golden State was able to have a good game on the inside with David Lee and Carl Landry, while Klay Thompson also helped a lot the team's offense with Golden State shooting 10-17 FG from 16-23 feet, 7-15 3pts and 7-14 FG on spot ups!
The Nets have one of the best interior defenses in the league and with the Warriors having their shooters on a letdown spot, I believe the Warriors won't have a huge offensive game tonight. The same will happen with the Nets, who are very predictable on offense without Brook Lopez. Both teams will have a decent offensive game tonight, but considering the fact that Brooklyn plays on the slowest tempo in the league, this game to go Over the total posted would need a huge offensive game from both teams. The first game of the season between these two teams had a pace of 83.50 (!) and both teams were very good on offense. Still, the game had just 195 points! With this amount of points being exactly the totals line for tonight's contest and as I expect this game to have a similar pace, but with both teams being a bit weaker on offense this time, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809 Golden State Warriors (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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