Projected Line: NY Knicks by 4 points
Charlotte is coming from an overtime home loss against Portland. I knew the Bobcats would have an edge at the PG position on offense, but I never expected to be that big! Kemba Walker shot 9-19 FG and dished 7 assists, while Charlotte took advantage of Portland's bad pick and roll defense to shoot 8-14 FG and 1.15 PPP on these plays. At the same time, Portland had once again terrible numbers on their transition defense, as the Bobcats scored 33 fast break points, with 10-17 FG on transition plays! The Bobcats led by 18 points during the 4th qusrter, but then they relaxed and allowed Portland to send the game to overtime and then, win the game in extra time. Portland had a decisive edge on boards, while Charlotte was able to shutdown Damian Lillard, who shot just 6-16 FG, while the Blazers shot just 2-10 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays! However, the Bobcats allowed LaMarcus Aldridge to dominate with 12-17 FG (7-8 FG at the rim) and 13 rebounds. Portland was good once again on the perimeter shooting, where they took advantage of Charlotte's perimeter defense struggles.
The Bobcats will now face the Knicks in another home game, in a lookahead spot for the Knicks, who will face Miami tomorrow. Charlotte's offense is based around their guards, especially with Kemba Walker penetrating and Ben Gordon giving the team a good perimeter shooter. Their offense is mostly based on pick and roll ball handler plays (#8), post ups (#18), spot ups (#30 on the season, but much better lately due to Ben Gordon: 0.80 PPP this season, 0.93 PPP over the last 12 games and 0.97 PPP over the last 6 games), and transitions (#24). The Knicks generally commit a low number of turnovers, so it will be hard for the Bobcats to score a lot of transition points tonight. However, the Knicks aren't being a good transition defense (only #24 in the league), with the same happening on their pick and roll ball handler defense, where they are just #22 in the league. The Knicks are a top defensive team on post ups mostly due to Tyson Chandler, but they have been much worse lately, as they are allowed 1.00 PPP lately, when they are averaging 0.91 PPP for the season. The Knicks also don't protect well the rim, as they can't stop the opposing dribble penetrations, so the Bobcats have a good spot and a good matchup to have another good offensive game tonight.
Charlotte's poor perimeter defense will surely be exposed tonight, as the Knicks are a great 3pts shooting team. The Knicks' offense is based on isolation plays, pick and roll ball handler plays and spot up plays, where they are a top team. The Bobcats are #15 on isolation defense, #5 in pick and roll ball handler defense (as they've shown against Portland) and #22 on spot up defense, where they keep regressing. As they use a small lineup quite often, Charlotte is a bad defensive rebounding team, as in fact they are #30 in the league with just 70.1% on just defensive rebounding rate! However, the Knicks won't expose that tonight, as they are just #25 in the league with a 23.4% offensive rebounding rate.
Charlotte has already three teams on the bottom 10 in pick and roll ball handler defense (Indiana, New Orleans and Portland) and they've played six games against teams on the bottom 10 in transition defense. They averaged an offensive rate of 108.3 in those games, therefore I expect them to have a good offensive game tonight. I believe Charlotte has a spot and matchup edge over the Knicks and with the NY team on a lookahead spot, I believe the Bobcats will make this game closer than most people expect. Therefore, I'll be taking Charlotte in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Charlotte Bobcats (+8) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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