NBA - 507 Denver Nuggets @ 508 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: 195 points
Atlanta is coming from a surprising home loss against Cleveland, where they were on a relaxed spot against a lowly team. It was just so easy for them to score that they showed little effort down the stretch and they eventually lost the game! Cleveland crushed the boards with 18-10 on offensive rebounds, while grabbing 62.80% of the total rebounds! The Cavaliers shot 21-22 from the free throw line, while Jeremy Pargo was able to attack at the rim with 9-13 FG. Atlanta looked good on offense, but they showed so little effort on rebounding and defense that they allowed the Cavaliers to comeback at the end and sneak a road win in a tough game for them.
After the game, coach Larry Drew called the defensive execution against the Cavaliers the team’s worst all season. Following Monday’s practice, the coaching staff held a film session to illustrate the issues.
“In watching the film yesterday, they saw exactly what I was talking about,” Drew said. “It wasn’t a situation where they could dispute anything. It was staring them right in the face. We had some really good dialog about how we played and now we are ready to move on.”
Atlanta's offense has been based on spot ups and transitions, as they haven't been using a lot of pick and roll ball handler plays lately. They will face Denver tonight, a team that is #11 on transition defense, but just #25 on spot up defense. However, Atlanta will have Devin Harris on the lineup tonight, as Kyle Korver is out for personal reasons and DeShawn Stevenson is banged up, so I don't expect the Hawks to be particularly dangerous on the outside shooting tonight. Atlanta has been very good on the rim offense with 71% FG at the rim, but they will face a tough interior defense of the Nuggets, as they have been allowing just 60% FG at the rim this season.
On the other hand, Denver needs to score easy points down low, as they have a huge volume of shots at the rim: almost 40%! But Atlanta's defense is a top team on this area by allowing just 61% FG at the rim this season and 55% FG over the last six games! The Nuggets also concentrate a lot of their offense in transitions, but the Hawks is #2 on transition defense, while allowing just 1.00 PPP. Jeff Teague won't be an easy opponent for Ty Lawson, so I really believe Denver's offense to struggle tonight.
I believe both teams will have some offensive struggles, as they have defensive weapons to stop their opponent's offense tonight, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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