NBA - 709 Phoenix Suns @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Line: Memphis by 13 points
Phoenix is coming from an early Sunday loss at NY against the Knicks, where they were down big early in the game, just to fought back down the stretch and fall just short because of the 17 turnovers they've committed and the treys that the Knicks kept hitting (12-29 3pts)! The Knicks had an expected edge on the perimeter against Phoenix's bad perimeter defense with 8-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 12-29 3pts plus 1.24 PPP on spot up plays. On the other hand, Marcin Gortat took advantage of the edge he had down low to shoot 8-11 FG and the truth is that Phoenix shot 19-26 FG at the rim. They also looked good on transitions with 9-14 FG and on pick and roll ball handler with 7-16 FG.
Sebastian Telfair is out of tonight's game, so Goran Dragic will be the only Suns PG getting a considerable number of minutes tonight. If the Suns struggled in avoiding turnovers against the Knicks, now with just Dragic and against the Grizzlies (#3 in opposing TO rate%), I believe Phoenix will struggle once again in avoiding turnovers tonight.
Memphis' offense is based on pick and rolls, spot ups, cuts and transitions and Phoenix curiously has a good defense in those areas by being #1 in cuts defense, #6 in post ups defense, #17 in pick and roll ball handler and #29 in pick and roll roll man. Their main problem has been on their perimeter defense and the truth is that the Grizzlies aren't shooting well from the perimeter this season, as they are just #29 on spot ups. However, the Suns are yet to face a tough frontcourt this season as the Grizzlies'
MEM offense é top em P/R BH + RM + post ups + cuts e #11 transition...problema deles tem sido mesmo spot up onde sao #29! The teams with a high volume of post up plays are Indiana, the Lakers, Utah, Memphis, Chicago and Brooklyn. Phoenix has already faced the Lakers, Chicago and Utah and the truth is that they allowed 1.11, 1.17, 0.88 PPP on post up plays to these three teams, when their season average is 0.80 PPP allowed!
Phoenix's offense is dependent from what Marcin Gortat can do, besides they also use a lot of pick and rolls, post ups, cuts and spot ups. Considering the fact that Memphis is a top defensive team in all of these areas, I believe the Grizzlies will shut down the Suns offense tonight. As I believe Phoenix's interior defense numbers are overrated, I expect the Grizzlies to be able to pound them down low and get an easy blowout win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Memphis in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Memphis Grizzlies (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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