Projected Line: pk line
Chicago is coming from a home win against Philadelphia, where they dominated the Sixers' offense. Philadelphia shot 13-31 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-12 3pts, with their tired legs really causing a jump shooting team like the Sixers to struggle big time on offense. The Bulls grabbed 54.5% of the boards and that was vital for them, as Chicago also shot a lot from the outside with 9-26 FG from 16-23 feet! Still, Chicago also tried to explore their inside edge by attempting just 7 treys, while shooting 17-27 FG at the rim. They didn't want to run (just 4 transition plays) and they also had a low volume on pick and rolls with just 11 plays! Their offense was based on post ups, spot ups, off screens, cuts and offensive rebounds, areas where they were decent enough for them to get the win on this contest.
Indiana is coming from a loss at Golden State, where David West and George Hill had good performances once again, but that wasn't enough to hang with the Warriors on the scoreboard. Golden State won the game via a good perimeter shooting, with Jarrett Jack dominating on the pick and rolls with 8-9 FG! Indiana looked good on the pick and rolls with George Hill and they also shot 10-18 FG on post up plays, but that wasn't enough to beat the Warriors, who had a really good offensive game.
Since they lost badly at NY against the Knicks on an early Sunday game, Indiana has made some little adjustments that has allowed them to improve on offense. They are averaging an 105.5 offensive rate since that game, much better than their season average of 99.9! Their game is completely based on post up plays and they are indeed #1 in the league in volume on that kind of play. Their offensive improvement has been mostly due to their pick and roll ball handler plays, with George Hill getting most of the credit for that, while they are also shooting a bit better from the outside than they were early on the season.
So, how will the Bulls defend the Pacers' frontcourt? Chicago isn't being a top defensive team on the paint like they were over the last few seasons, mostly due to Omer Asik being now in Houston. They are #6 on paint defense with 38.4 ppg allowed, but they are just #27 at rim defense with 66.6% FG allowed on that area. The Bulls are #1 on post up defense with 0.69 PPP, but they are just #21 on defending pick and roll ball handler plays and #28 in transition defense, two areas where the Pacers' offense has been playing well lately.
Chicago will be playing without Rip Hamilton and Jimmy Butler will be his replacement. He is a good defender, but he lacks the shooting skills of Hamilton, who was actually playing quite well lately. The Bulls need to create points on the inside and to dominate the boards, in order to compensate the lack of talent on their perimeter. The problem is that Indiana is #3 on the league in defending rebound rate with 75.2%, #1 on paint defense with 35.3 ppg allowed and #5 on rim defense with just 60.7% FG allowed from this area. So, the Bulls will have a very tough time in scoring down low against the Pacers tonight.
I believe Indiana will take advantage of the Bulls' poor defense on pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions to score some points on them tonight, while Chicago will heavily struggle tonight in scoring points, as Indiana's defense is a horrible matchup for the Bulls' offense. I see this game as a 50/50 game and so, I'll be taking the Pacers plus the points in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Indiana Pacers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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