NBA - 711 Los Angeles Lakers @ 712 Houston Rockets
Projected Line: 220 points
This game has all the conditions to be a pure run and gun game. Houston is definitely a run and gun team and they lead the league in pace with 94.1! In fact, their pace was even higher on their last games with 95.66! They will now face the Lakers, who are #2 in the league in pace with 92.80 this season and 94.45 since their new uptempo look with Mike D'Antoni. So, this game will definitely be a very fast paced game.
Then, the matchup also favors the game to be a high scoring one. Houston is shooting a lot at the rim (37% volume) and 3pts (31% volume), so they are in excellent position to have great offensive numbers. They are especially good on pick and roll ball handler plays (#1 in the league) with James Harden and Jeremy Lin, so I don't believe they will have problems in scoring tonight against a very slow team of the Lakers, with Antawn Jamison, Chris Duhon, Kobe Bryant and Metta World Peace playing on the starting lineup tonight and being really slow, while Dwight Howard isn't quick enough to cover the whole court.
I have no doubts that Houston's gameplan for tonight is to run, run and run, in order to explode with the veteran Lakers physically at the end of the game. On the other hand, Houston's interior defense is quite poor with 65% FG at the rim allowed this season and 71% FG over the last five games! The Rockets are also a terrible team in defending transition plays and if the Lakers win something with Jamison and Duhon in the lineup is at the offensive end. Jamison is an offensive improvement over the injured Gasol, who has been a disaster on offense lately, while Duhon is indeed a much better passer than Morris. Therefore, I expect this game to be a super high scoring game, with both teams having a very good offensive game on a fast paced game, so I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 214,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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