NBA - 705 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 706 Brooklyn Nets
Projected Line: 189 points
Brooklyn is coming from a loss in Miami, where they had an excellent start of the game, but they got crushed by Miami's super pressure on the ball handler during the second half. This is why Brooklyn finished with 19 turnovers. The Nets also ran out of gas at the end, with both Deron Williams and Joe Johnson disappearing during the fourth quarter. Without Brook Lopez, the Nets were unable to do anything on their post ups and they had also only 0.29 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays. Brooklyn's offense is based around cuts and spot ups, but Oklahoma City is #9 on cuts defense with 1.13 PPP and 1.20 PPP against opponents that use them with a volume higher than 9%. The Thunder are also #2 in isolation defense with 0.61 PPP, while they are #19 on spot ups defense.
On the other hand, the Thunder's offense has been just amazing lately, as they are shooting 72% FG at the rim, 40% FG from 16-23 feet and 65% eFG% 3pts over the last 10 games! Their volume of isolation plays has been higher than usual, but that's also due to the blowout wins they have been getting and so, they have been using a lot of isolation plays late in the games. Oklahoma City has been amazing on spot ups, cuts and transitions lately, however Brooklyn is #2 on transition defense, #5 on cuts defense and #16 on spot up defense, so I expect the Nets' defense to be able to slow down a bit of the Thunder's current offensive momentum.
We have also some interesting matchups, with Gerald Wallace against Kevin Durant, Deron Williams against Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha defending Joe Johnson. With these matchups favoring both defenses and with both frontcourts lacking offensive skills, now that Brook Lopez is still injured, I believe this game will be a low scoring one, especially with both teams being quite good on rim defense (Brooklyn is #2 with 59.1% FG allowed and Oklahoma City #5 with 61% FG allowed). I expect this game to be played on a super slow pace, as Brooklyn is #30 on pace and the Thunder play at any style that their opponent wants, therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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