NBA - 703 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 704 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Line: 191 points
Kevin Love has already comeback a couple of weeks ago, but this is probably the first time the Wolves are on a good spot and with Kevin Love physically at 100%, as he was also sick last week. Minnesota played six games in ten days and mostly due to that, the Wolves kept struggling on offense with offensive ratings of 99.91, 108.41, 93.83, 105.34, 102.65 and 100.08 over the last six games. Minnesota finally had 3 days to rest and prepare this game, so I expect them to take advantage of this much better offensive spot to finally have a good offensive game tonight.
Philadelphia's defense is built to defend the paint very well (they are #5 in paint defense with 38.2ppg allowed), but that's not because they have a great interior defense. The truth is that they do everything to avoid their opponents to shoot near the basket, as when their opponents shoot near the basket, they actually struggle, as they are #16 in rim defense with 63.3% FG allowed and #20 in post up defense. With Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic back at 100%, Minnesota has a good spot to pound the Sixers down low. Philadelphia will obviously need to overhelp their interior defense, as it's impossible that Lavoy Allen and Thaddeus Young can defend on their own Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love. The Wolves' backcourt with Luke Ridnour and J.J. Barea has also improved their effectiveness on the pick and rolls, as they have 0.79 PPP on pick and roll ball handler this season, but these numbers have improved to 0.90 PPP since Kevin Love came back to the lineup.
But the problem of the Wolves' backcourt is on defense and that's where Philadelphia will have a super edge over the poor perimeter defense of Minnesota. Not only the Wolves' backcourt is undersized, as they also lack foot speed to defend well. Philadelphia has been improving a lot their offense in terms of pick and rolls due to the stellar play of Jrue Holiday and their outside game has also improved a lot recently, with Jason Richardson and Evan Turner being the team's highlight on the perimeter shooting. The Sixers are averaging 1.03 PPP on spot up plays, but recently these numbers have gone up to 1.36 PPP!
This game remembers me Philadelphia's recent game against Charlotte, where the Sixers had a size edge on the perimeter and their guards took advantage to have a monster game. I expect the same to happen tonight, while Philadelphia will struggle a lot in defending Minnesota's frontcourt, something that will also give open space to the Wolves' backcourt to have a good outside shooting game in here as well. I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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