NBA Free Premium Play 12/04: Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards

Miami  at Washington

NBA - 701 Miami Heat @ 702 Washington Wizards Projected Line: 198 points Miami has a good spot for tonight, with two days off to rest, however on this contest against a lowly team, I expect them to have a relaxed mindset tonight and let the Wizards have a decent offensive game. The Heat are coming from a physical game against Brooklyn, where their offense had to sweat to starting producing a decent amount of offense thanks to the Nets' toughness. Dwayne Wade had his best game of the season and with him being healthy, Miami's offense will surely have huge offensive numbers against every lowly team they face. The Wizards' defense can actually protect well the paint by being #3 in paint defense with 37.7 ppg allowed, but their problem is that they struggle in defending the outside shots from their opponents, as they have a poor starting PG and a rookie at the SG position. Miami is #1 in 3pts shooting and #2 on spot ups this season, so I really believe they will have a great offensive game tonight. Washington has already faced this season four of the ten teams currently in the top 10 in spot ups and they allowed offensive ratings of 106.80, 121.79, 131.04 and 121.49 to those teams. Their last game was at NY where the Knicks made 12 treys, while the game where they allowed an offensive rating of 131 was against San Antonio. Therefore, Miami has all the conditions to have a huge offensive tonight. So, it's up to know what the Wizards will be able to do on offense. First of all, Nene Hilario will play and even though he hasn't played a lot this season, the truth is that the Wizards' offense is averaging an offensive rating of 105.7 with him on the court and just 95.2 with Nene out of the game! The good news is that he will face a Miami frontcourt defense that isn't an elite unit, so he is likely to have a good game tonight. Washington is clearly a jump shooting team, something weird as they don't have elite shooters. However, Miami's defensive problems this season have been on their perimeter, as they are the 5th worst team in the league in allowing shots from 16-23 feet with 40.9%, besides the fact that they are just #24 on spot up defense. If we add the fact that Miami won't come to this focus with a 100% focused mindset, we can expect Washington to reach the 90 points mark tonight, a high enough number for this game to go Over the total posted, as Miami will definitely have a huge offensive game tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 194,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes