Projected Line: 188 points | Charlotte by 5 points
Portland is on a tough spot tonight, as this will be their third game in four nights plus they went to double overtime in their last game at Cleveland, where four of their starters played 44 minutes or more! Both teams struggled on defense early on that game, while Portland's bench played rather well and allowed the Blazers to make a run to send the game into overtime, also thanks to LaMarcus Aldridge carrying the Blazers down the stretch in the fourth quarter. Portland took advantage of Cleveland's terrible inside defense and poor pick and roll defense to torch them with 26-36 FG at the rim, 6-11 FG on pick and roll ball handler, 6-7 FG pick and roll roll man and 7-15 FG in post ups! On the other hand, Cleveland took advantage of Portland's poor inside defense with 19-33 FG at the rim and 10-15 FG in cuts!
Now onto tonight's matchup. Portland's offense is based around pick and rolls, post ups and transitions. Unlike Cleveland, Charlotte is #7 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #10 in post ups defense, #24 in pick and roll roll man defense and #9 in transition defense, so the Bobcats have a tough defense for Portland's offensive style. On the other hand, Charlotte's offense is based around pick and roll ball handler (#9 with 0.82 PPP and 15% volume), spot ups and transitions. Considering the fact that Portland's defense is #25 in pick and roll ball handler defense, #29 in transition defense and #29 in cuts defense, the Blazers offer a good offensive matchup to Charlotte, whose offense is led by Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions, the two leading scorers on the team, even though they are shooting worse than 40% FG this season.
I expect Charlotte's aggressive defensive pressure to put the Blazers in a lot of problems tonight, as Portland is on a tough spot and they can suddenly run out of gas in the second half. The Bobcats have a good spot and a good matchup tonight, so I'll be taking them in here. I believe Portland will struggle offensively tonight, while Charlotte's poor backcourt shooting won't allow them to completely crush Portland, so I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Charlotte Bobcats (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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