NBA - 513 Memphis Grizzlies @ 514 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 193 points
Without nobody noticing, San Antonio has a good rim defense by allowing just 59% FG at the rim (#3)! We will definitely see Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter playing together on the frontcourt and with these two players on the court at the same time, their offensive rating gets down to 97.0, while their defense is very good by allowing just an offensive rate of 94.0 to their opponents! Memphis' offense has a lot of volume to the inside and they had 40.4%, 40.4%, 39.7%, 37.7% and 35.8% volume of shots at the rim on their last five games! Their problem is that they aren't efficient by being the 4th worst team in the league with just 59.0%!
Memphis is a top team on offense in post ups (#4), pick and roll roll man (#3) and cuts (#3), but San Antonio can defend these three areas quite well by being #10, #9 and #10 respectively. Besides the fact that Rudy Gay might be a tough problem for the Spurs tonight, San Antonio's defense has a great chance of having a good performance tonight in all the other areas.
On the other hand, San Antonio's offense is based on pick and roll ball handler (15.14% volume), spot ups (21.88% volume), transitions (13.49% volume) and cuts (8.67% volume). However, Memphis' defense is #6, #12, #3 and #9 in those areas respectively. Of course San Antonio can win this game, but it will take a lot of focus on defense and the glass, not to mention a lot of patience and precision on offense. The Spurs have had trouble pulling down defensive rebounds and have turned the ball over a lot. You can't do that against the Grizzlies.
I expect both teams to have good defensive performances tonight, tuning this game into a surprisingly low scoring game. I'm taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment