NBA - 701 New York Knicks @ 702 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 197 points
The Knicks is coming from a tough road win in Charlotte last night, where the Bobcats outscored them in the paint by 52-40 and 45-33 in bench points. Charlotte also outran the Knicks by 23-8 in fast break points. The Bobcats punished the Knicks interior defense that was very ineffective even with Tyson Chandler on the floor! Kemba Walker attacked off the dribble against the Knicks slow defense and he ended the game with 8-15 FG and 11 assists! The Bobcats also shot 23-35 FG at the rim, 9-13 FG on transitions and 10-19 FG on spot ups, with another great game from Ben Gordon.
However, Charlotte screwed up once again down the stretch with a shot clock violation, missed shot, 5 second inbound turnover, traveling call, bad pass for a turnover on their last five possessions of the game! The Knicks' offense is once again based in four areas. Of course, their main area was on spot ups with 9-30 FG and 30% volume! The Knicks had 41 3pts attempts during the game! They also had their share of isolation and pick and rolls, with Tyson Chandler had a good edge on the inside, while the Knicks took advantage of the Bobcats' confusing perimeter defense to have good looks for their outside shots!
For tonight's game against Miami, I believe this game will be a slow paced one. That's the Knicks' plan without a doubt, as they won't want to run up and down against Miami with their veteran roster. Miami may try to push the tempo, but there's something interesting about the Heat. They only push up the pace when they create turnovers, but they won't create a lot of turnovers tonight, as the Knicks is #1 in TO rate with 11.7%! The Knicks' offense is based on isolation plays, pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups, with the Heat' defense being quite poor on defending these three kind of plays. However, I expect the Heat to make a huge defensive effort tonight, as this is a revenge game for them and they are coming from a humiliating loss at Washington two days ago! With Miami focused on defense, I expect them to do something similar to what they did against Brooklyn in the second half. They will put a lot of pressure on the perimeter and even though this will give some easy points to Tyson Chandler, they won't give space to the Knicks' perimeter! The Knicks are on a back to back spot, Jason Kidd, Raymond Felton and Carmelo Anthony are banged up, so I believe the Knicks will indeed struggle a bit on offense tonight.
So, the key in here will be Miami's offense. Both Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are banged up, while Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem are also dealing with some injuries. Miami gains a lot when Mario Chalmers is red hot on the perimeter shooting, as he has space when Lebron James penetrate. However, with him dealing with a finger injury, I don't expect Chalmers to shoot well tonight if he plays. I expect this game to be a relatively slow paced game, with both the Knicks and the Heat having some struggles on offense due to some injuries. Therefore, looking at the high totals line of this contest, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment