NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: 198 points | Phoenix by 7 points
Dallas is coming from a loss last night in LA against the Clippers, where they showed struggles once again on their half court offense. Derek Fisher was able to make some shots from the perimeter, but he didn't do anything on pick and rolls and ended the game with just two assists. Darren Collison is slumping, he had 7 turnovers, while Jae Crowder shot 0-6 FG! The Clippers' frontcourt stopped Dallas down low and the Mavs shot just 7-18 FG at the rim! Dallas shot well from the perimeter with 9-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-19 3pts, but the Clippers dominated down low, while pressuring a lot the ball handler of the Mavs, with that resulting in 22 turnovers for Dallas. The Mavericks were able to score 22 fast break points and besides their outside shooting, this was the only way Dallas was able to do anything on offense in that game. The Clippers pounded them down low with 23-32 FG at the rim and they did whatever they wanted to do with the Mavs, as it was a total domination!
Dallas will now face Phoenix on the road in a back to back game for them. With the Mavericks struggling on offense, Phoenix's transition defense will decide the Mavs' offensive fate in here. The Suns are #8 in fast break points defense with 12.5 ppg allowed, but with this new lineup, the numbers go even lower to 11.0 ppg! They are #18 in transition defense with 1.13 PPP allowed. Both teams are poor defensive rebounding teams (Dallas is #30 and Phoenix is #20), but at the same time, they are poor offensive rebounding teams (Dallas is #29 and Phoenix is #16), so there won't be a lot of second chance points in here.
Dallas' offense is based in three key areas: pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transition plays. However, the Mavericks' offense has been much worse in these three areas lately. Phoenix has been struggling on perimeter defense this season against teams that have a good ball movement or when they have teams with powerful big guys that require the Suns' backcourt to overhelp their soft frontcourt, opening space on the outside. Dallas doesn't have any big guy to make Phoenix struggle on the inside and so, the Suns will be able to focus on their perimeter defense tonight.
Phoenix's offense depends a lot from Goran Dragic and he will have a clear edge over Derek Fisher tonight. Phoenix is #12 on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.80 PPP, they are also a decent team on post ups (#8) thanks to Marcin Gortat and Luis Scola, while they are also a top team in cuts by being #3 in the league! Dallas is #9 on defending pick and roll ball handler plays, but they are defending much worse lately! They are a bad team in defending post ups as expected, while they are #3 in defending cuts this season, but once again they are defending cuts much worse lately as well.
I believe Phoenix will be able to stop the Mavericks' struggling offense tonight, while the Suns have some weapons on offense to comfortably outscore Dallas tonight. Therefore, I expect Phoenix to comfortably win this game while stopping the Mavs offense, so I'll be taking both the Suns and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Phoenix Suns (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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