NBA Free Premium Play 12/05: Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons

Golden State  at Detroit

NBA - 509 Golden State Warriors @ 510 Detroit Pistons Projected Line: 195 points Golden State has been very competitive lately, as their guards has been playing very well. The Warriors have been very good on pick and roll ball handler plays, as they have just 0.82 PPP on these plays for the season, but the numbers go up to 0.98 PPP over the last six games! Their recent numbers on spot ups (0.99 season vs 1.05 L6), pick and roll roll man plays (0.90 season vs 1.03 L6), 16-23 feet shooting (0.43 eFG% season vs 0.45 eFG% L6) and 3pts shooting (0.52 eFG% season vs 0.60 eFG% L6).also show their recent offensive improvement. At the same time, both David Lee and Carl Landry keep playing very well, so Golden State is right now a good offensive team. They will face a Pistons defense that is #19 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #30 on post ups and #3 on spot ups defense. Their perimeter defense is looking very well on paper and they have allowed just 77, 90, 92 and 79 points over their last four games, however this was achieved mostly due to the poor spots of their opponents in these games. Phoenix were dead tired after going to overtime at Cleveland, on a back to back spot for them plus it was their third game in four games. Memphis played without Mike Conley and they lack a good outside shooting. Dallas is on a major funk right now, while Cleveland was coming from a double overtime game against Portland. Even though Detroit has been defending well, I believe Golden State's good offense won't have a lot of troubles in putting a decent number of points on the Pistons tonight. Detroit's offense is completely based on their rim shooting, as 41% of their shots are at the rim. They have a high turnover rate (16.5% TO rate, just like Golden State), however both teams also don't put a lot of pressure on the opposing ball handler, as Golden State is #28 in opposing TO rate with 14.0% and Detroit is #24 with 14.6%. So, both teams won't struggle with turnovers tonight, therefore this is a good offensive spot for both teams. Golden State doesn't have a good rim defense (#19 with 65% FG allowed), while the Pistons are also quite good on their cuts, with Tayshaun Prince and Kyle Singler penetrating well into the basket. The Warriors are #24 in cuts defense with 1.24 PPP allowed, so I believe Detroit will have success on their cuts tonight. I expect both teams to have good offensive games tonight, as Golden State is playing very well on offense, while Detroit with this new starting lineup that replaced Rodney Stuckey with Kyle Singler is also much better on offense. I believe this will be a high scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker