Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Manchester City (-0.75) @ -133 / 1.75 on SBOBet (OR -140 / 1.71 on Pinnacle Sports)
Detailed Write Up:
I’ve decided to release this play early as Man City will be one of the “public plays” of the round and right now, we can get this AH -0.75 @ decent prices of -130’s / 1.70’s.
Man City “needs” this contest. They are coming from 4 consecutive games in which they failed to win: 0-1 home loss vs. Stoke City, 2-2 draw @Arsenal, 0-1 loss @Bayern Munchen for the Champions League and 1-1 draw vs. Chelsea in this weekend, curiously we had plays in all those games without losing any of them (Stoke+2, Man City PK @Arsenal, Man City +1 @Bayern & Under 2.75 Goals vs. Chelsea)
While they “dominated” the game vs. Chelsea in this past round, it was a tough spot for them w/ 3 huge games in the span of just a week (Arsenal, Bayern & Chelsea). To make matters worse, they played w/ 10 men since the 66th minute w/ Zabaleta being sent off. It was indeed a busy week for them! For this round, I expect Pellegrini to rotate his squad against Sheffield Wednesday in tomorrow's Capital One Cup fixture and therefore, we should be dealing w/ a pure week of preparation going forward for this contest. W/ Man City 100% focused, I don’t think that Hull City will be able to hang around w/ them!
Last season, Hull City had a decent defensive organization but they are really struggling in this area early on the season: they have allowed 2 goals/game in L3 contests and teams are averaging 18.2 shots/game against them - #2 worst mark in the league! This is a bad sign because they have faced so far QPR, Stoke City, Aston Villa, West Ham & Newcastle and none of these teams are powerhouse teams!
I had a play w/ them in the previous round that we cashed partially (+0.25 @ Hull City) as I expect them to take advantage of Newcastle’s shaky condition. While they got one point, they were outplayed by Newcastle who had 63% ball possession, attempted 25 total shots with 19 of them via build up plays! Who can’t allow so many chances to the opponents! It worked against Newcastle but Man City is a completely different “beast”!
Offensively, Hull City is a fragile team… all my rankings have them outside of the top13 and I expect Man City’s defense to handle them quite easily.
I expect Man City to win this contest and therefore, I’m taking them -0.75 AH in here!
Soccer Pick #2: Chelsea vs. Aston Villa
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 3 Goals @ -116 / 1.86 on SBOBet (OR -118 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:
I expect this contest to be a tight tactical battle due Villa’s good defensive organization. We cashed w/ Arsenal last week against them but truth be told, several Villa’s players were hit by a virus prior to the game and it looked clearly that they lacked their usual defensive aggressive pressure:
"Ashley Westwood was sick in the warm-up, Nathan Baker, Darren Bent and Andi Weimann were at half-time. We were really struggling. It's not an excuse but it's a fact. We could have been better defensively but we weren't at 100 per cent."
Arsenal didn’t have any pity and scored three quick goals in the first half to seal the deal. For today, I expect Villa’s to be more in-form physically and be a tough matchup for Chelsea. Villa’s has been a great defensive team closing the center of the field and this bodes well for them b/c Chelsea is the #1 team in the EPL attacking through the middle!
On the other end, Villa is the worst team in the league in total shots & shots on target per game… they will be once again without a pure striker on the front and therefore, this is a perfect scenario for a clean sheet performance from Chelsea.
Soccer Pick #3: Crystal Palace - Leicester
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes)
Soccer Pick #4: Southampton - QPR
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: QPR (+1.25) @ -132 / 1.76 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -133 / 1.75 on 5 Dimes)
Soccer Pick #4: Arsenal vs. Tottenham
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Arsenal (-0.5) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes
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