MLB Premium Card 09/11

MLB Pick #1: 903 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 904 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: R. Delgado vs. J. Peavy)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 904 San Francisco Giants RL-1.5 @ +110 / 2.10 on 5 Dimes

MLB Pick #2: 905 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 906 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: F. Liriano vs. A. Burnett)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7.5 @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

For tonight I have 3 strong leans w/ Under and I’m playing all of them as I feel that we are going to see some “Pitchers’ duels” on the mound…

Both Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett have been pitching pretty well lately… Liriano is having some bad luck as his team hasn’t provided him the proper run support but after struggling in one start vs. ATL, Liriano is bounced back and made 3 straight quality starts on his L3 starts. The last one was impressive if we take in account that the Cubs’ lineup is a solid lineup vs. LHP’s this season and still, Liriano held them to 6 scoreless innings.

On the other end, we have a red hot Burnett on the mound. I have played him in each of his L3 starts w/ good success as we’ve won 2 plays (both as big underdogs!) He dominated the solid lineup of the Nationals twice in those 2 starts, and I expect him to be decent tonight as well.

MLB Pick #3: 909 Miami Marlins @ 910 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: N. Eovaldi vs. M. Fiers)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7.5 @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

While the Brewers are heavily struggling lately, Mike Fiers has been exceptional for them! All of his starts have been great and note that his L4 opponents were: STL, SF, PIT & TOR – all good offensive teams and still, Fiers dominated them! I expect him to keep his good numbers for tonight.

On the other end, I also expect Eovaldi to be decent tonight. He one bad start against the Angels in the last month (well, I’m not giving too much focus in that start since the Angels are killing everyone lately), and he has a great advanced numbers line of 3.17 FIP + 3.52 xFIP in this second half of season. Note that his split numbers vs. RH batters this season has been impeccable w/  245 BA + .282 wOBA + 2.81 FIP + 3.51 xFIP and this is a good sign against this Right-Heavy lineup of the Brewers. Therefore, with both Pitchers performing well, I’m taking the Under in here.

MLB Pick #4: 915 Tampa Bay Rays @ 916 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: A. Cobb vs. M. Pineda)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

Yesterday’s game between these two teams was a slugfest as both Chris Capuano and Jake Odorizzi struggled to deliver quality outings. For tonight, I think that both Cobb and Pineda will dominate on the mound because that’s what they are doing in this second half of season:

Cobb: 2.15 FIP & 2.83 xFIP
Pineda: 2.83 FIP + 3.41 xFIP

I have both offenses ranked #20 (tied) in the L14 days, so I don’t think that they will be able to do substantial damage tonight.

MLB Pick #5: 919 Boston Red Sox @ 920 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: C. Buchholz vs. L. Hendricks)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 919 Boston Red Sox 1st 5 IP's ML @ +110 / 2.10 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

It’s tough for me to make a play w/ Boston for the full game as KC’s bullpen has been great in this second half of season, but I think that BOS’s Clay Buchholz doesn’t deserve to be “underdog” in this matchup vs. Liam Hendriks.

I had a play on him on his last start (it was pushed as we had RL-1 and the Red Sox won by one run) but he was excellent! Actually, his awful 5.13 ERA mark in the 2nd half of season doesn’t compute w/ his advanced numbers: 3.42 FIP & 3.93 xFIP!

The Royals are coming from a monster series vs. DET and this is a potential letdown spot for them: returning home to face the lowly Red Sox?!