Soccer Pick #1: Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Arsenal (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:
Villa has been playing without a pure striker on the front and using the wings as their primary source of offense. In the last week against Liverpool:
Attacking from the left side: 40%
Attacking from the middle: 17%
Attacking from the right side: 43%
Arsenal is a bit vulnerable from the wings as their full-backs are extremely offensive minded. Mathieu Debuchy is OUT for today and most likely Calum Chambers will start on his place. This is good news for Arsenal b/c Chambers is more committed to defense and so, the Gunners won’t be such exposed on the right-back.
Villa’s defensive organization is great and they held Liverpool scoreless at home – a great accomplishment! However, Liverpool’s attack was way “too static” with little to no movement until Sterling entered in the field. Balotelli definitely isn’t Suarez and his off-movement stuff is limited, Markovic is still learning and adjusting to the Premier League and the Reds struggled to generate movement on the front. This won’t happen today w/ Arsenal!
Soccer Pick #2: Burnley vs. Sunderland
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Sunderland (+0.25) @ -120 / 1.83 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)
Detailed Write Up:
I expect this contest to be a tight battle w/ the Draw being a likely scenario and therefore, we are getting some value at this +0.25 line as long we can find @ -125 / 1.80 odds.
Burnley is a well organized team that is solid defensively. However, they don’t have much firepower on the front quality and depth-wise. This is maximized when their two best forwards Sam Vokes & Danny Ings are both OUT for today. Remember that these two players combined to score 47 goals in the last season for them in the Championship. I think that the offensive struggles will remain in display today…
Sunderland has 3 points in the table – all draws, and they are coming from a draw vs. Tottenham, although they were clearly outplayed in that game and got some lucky. Their fighting spirit has been terrific as they were trailing in all those 3 draws just to tie the game. Unlike Burnley, they are “healthy” and this could make the difference in this contest…
Burnley is a well organized team that is solid defensively. However, they don’t have much firepower on the front quality and depth-wise. This is maximized when their two best forwards Sam Vokes & Danny Ings are both OUT for today. Remember that these two players combined to score 47 goals in the last season for them in the Championship. I think that the offensive struggles will remain in display today…
Sunderland has 3 points in the table – all draws, and they are coming from a draw vs. Tottenham, although they were clearly outplayed in that game and got some lucky. Their fighting spirit has been terrific as they were trailing in all those 3 draws just to tie the game. Unlike Burnley, they are “healthy” and this could make the difference in this contest…
Soccer Pick #3: Newcastle United vs. Hull City
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Hull City (+0.25) @ +110 / 2.10 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +105 / 2.02 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:
This is a pivotal game for the future of Newcastle’s head coach Alan Pardew and I doubt that Newcastle will perform at their best today with such heavy pressure “under their skins”. Newcastle defensive line has been atrocious to say the least, just go back and watch Southampton’s goals against them to understand my statement. Offensively, they lack the proper creativity given by Siem de Jong who is injured and Papiss Demba Cissé would help them on the front w/ his speed but he is also injured and out for this contest.
Hull City will be a tough matchup for them as they are well organized defensively and don’t allow much space on the back. Their problem was on the front as they lacked some pace and “killing instinct”. The good news was that Abel Hernandez and Mohamed Diamé made their first game for them in the last round and “coincidentally”, both scored one goal in the 2-2 draw against West Ham United. With Hernandéz on the front, I think that Hull City will take advantage of the fragile mindset of Newcastle players and therefore, they don’t deserve to be such underdogs in this contest.
Hull City will be a tough matchup for them as they are well organized defensively and don’t allow much space on the back. Their problem was on the front as they lacked some pace and “killing instinct”. The good news was that Abel Hernandez and Mohamed Diamé made their first game for them in the last round and “coincidentally”, both scored one goal in the 2-2 draw against West Ham United. With Hernandéz on the front, I think that Hull City will take advantage of the fragile mindset of Newcastle players and therefore, they don’t deserve to be such underdogs in this contest.
Soccer Pick #4: Swansea City vs. Southampton
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Both Teams to Score @ -123 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports
Detailed Write Up:
Both teams are confident and playing an exciting attacking football, I have strong lean w/ OVER 2.5 Goals but I rather prefer playing both teams to score as both teams are creating several chances to score while defensively, they are prone to commit individual errors.
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