Soccer Pick #1: Manchester City @ Arsenal
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Manchester City (PK) @ -131 / 1.76 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker)
Detailed Write Up:
This is the earliest game of the day! We are eating some high juice in here, but I really didn’t want to take a bite on Man City (-0.25) as if the contest is tied +70min, both teams would be “happy” to get a point and therefore, this (PK) line is perfect for us in this scenario (it would be pushed).
Man City is coming from a shocking loss at home vs. Stoke City, but for us it wasn’t a complete surprise, as we faded them in that contest by taking Stoke+2. In this matchup, there are 3 key factors that will work favorably for City today:
1) They have a more cohesive defensive line in my opinion, especially with their defensive midfield covering some ground on the wings when their wing-backs go forward. I believe that this is Arsenal’s major weakness in their roster alongside w/ striker position;
2) Arsenal’s passing game is yet to "click" in this season… in the first 3 games they didn’t impress me at all w/ their build up game. Usually they are sharp with passes going forward but we are yet to see a solid performance from them. It looks like Aaron Ramsey is questionable/doubtful for this contest and this is a major blow for them;
3) Most likely, Danny Welbeck will start for Arsenal, and even though he is confident right now after scoring twice for England this past week, I don’t think that he had the proper time to develop the proper chemistry w/ his teammates.
Arsenal crushed Man City in the Charity Shield 3-0, but this contest simply couldn’t be comparable to that game as Man City looked like they were still in vacations, while Arsenal was hungry to collect one more title. I think that City is the better team right now and I’m taking my chances w/ them in here.
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