MLB Premium Card 09/04

MLB Pick #1: 957 Detroit Tigers @ 958 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs. T. Bauer)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 957 Detroit Tigers ML @ -123 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

DET’s SP Max Scherzer apparently is struggling a little bit lately by allowing 5, 3 & 4 ER’s on his L3 starts. However, a close look on his advanced numbers tells us that he was just “unlucky” on those starts because a 24/4 K/BB ratio is something special. Also, his “FIP” numbers were way better vs. ERA, the speed of his pitches was normal so, I expect him to bounce back tonight. CLE’s lineup is not an easy matchup for him but his L2 starts against them were excellent w/ 2 & 1 ER’s allowed.

On the other end, I’m fading CLE’s SP Trevor Bauer tonight. He is coming from b2b starts in which he threw +105’s pitches and he had “just” 4 off days going for tonight’s matchup - not a good spot for him IMO.

His K numbers have been impressive lately w/ 23.3% K% in the month of August, but he also has been “wild” w/ a subpar 13.3% BB% rate! Putting base runners on board against this DET lineup is a bad idea especially because DET is elite in avoiding being K’ed. This is going to be his 4th start against DET, so DET’s batters already know him pretty well!

With a pitching edge favoring the Tigers, I’m taking them in here @ this short price.

MLB Pick #2: 959 Toronto Blue Jays @ 960 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs. J. Odorizzi)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 959 Toronto Blue Jays ML @ +132 / 2.32 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

We cashed a nice ticket w/ TOR and I think that we are getting some value once again w/ the Blue Jays in here.

TB’s SP Jake Odorizzi is enjoying a solid season, but he is clearly struggling lately in my opinion even though he is coming from a good start vs. BOS. His 4.11 FIP & 4.15 xFIP numbers in the month of August aren’t exactly exciting numbers. Fangraphs.com published an article some weeks ago noticing that his fastball avg. speed is decreasing lately. I’ve checked his L3 starts numbers and indeed all of them were below his season avg of 90.3 MPH! FADE ALERT!

On the other end, we all know that TOR’s SP Mark Buehrle can’t dominate on the mound, but he has been consistent lately while giving his team a chance to win the games. His L4 FIP numbers were impeccable w/ 2.29, 2.97, 2.00 & 0.73! TB is struggling lately to hit vs. LHP’s w/ just .153 BA in L10 games! Also, his 4 starts vs. TB this season were all decent and therefore, I think that the Rays don’t deserve to be so favored by the books today.