Sunday, September 21, 2014

Soccer Premier League Free Premium Card 09/21

Soccer Pick #1: Leicester City vs. Manchester United
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 2.75 Goals @ -102 / 1.98 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -103 / 1.97 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

Ihad a small lean w/ Man Utd today but this -1 AH line seems just right and I’ve decided to make a play w/ OVER.

Man Utd is coming from their first win of the season against QPR in a game where they changed their formation for a more traditional 4-3-1-2 diamond formation and more importantly, they have added some new players: Rojo, Blind, Herrera returned after an injury and obviously Di Maria.

Their offensive flow was great and all players looked more comfortably on the field. It also helped the fact that Young, Fletcher and Valencia were all dropped off the team as I’m not a fan of those 3 players. Herrera is a key player for them because his build up action through the middle is unique for the team (Cleverly and Fletcher aren’t capable of doing that build up stuff).

 However, it helped the fact that they were playing against QPR who looked terrible (once again)! Leicester City is way a better team right now than QPR! They are well organized, they attack from the wings and they have a serviceable striker who is really making some damage in the Premier League. They already have faced 3 top teams this season (Everton, Arsenal & Chelsea) and in all those 3 games, they had a positive mindset trying to score goals. They managed to score vs. Everton & Chelsea at home and they had a HUGE chance to score vs. Chelsea in the first half. I expect them to keep having this mindset today vs. Man Utd, so this contest will be fun to watch.

I’m not sold in Man Utd’s defensive consistency… QPR had some good chances last week against them but missed it all. Man Utd could win today, but I think that Leicester City will give a great fight w/ both teams scoring goals. Therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.



Soccer Pick #2: Tottenham vs. W.B.A
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Tottenham (-1) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

I expect Tottenham to easily dismantle WBA today…

After being humiliated by Liverpool at home, the Spurs went to Sunderland and got one point after drawing 2-2. They deserved to win that game as they created several chances to score and outplayed Sunderland for the majority of the time. They played midweek one Europa League game but Mauricio Pochettino rested some key players in that game, so the Spurs will be “fresh” for today’s game.

I’ve faded WBA in the last 2 rounds against Everton and Swansea City with nice success and I see no reason to stop fading them against teams w/ good firepower on the front.



Soccer Pick #3: Everton vs. Crystal Palace
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Crystal Palace (+1.25) -121 / 1.82 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

Unlike Totenham for example, Everton’s boss Roberto Martinez decided to field their best possible lineup in Europa’s League match against Wolfsburg this past Thursday, and I think that this might turn against him today vs. Crystal Palace. Everton has several players injured and therefore, it’s hard for him to rotate his players but I suspect of Everton’s energy level for today (Seamus Coleman and Leighton Baines picked up some minor injuries vs. Wolfsburg).

Everton’s defensive problems have been well noticed early on the season:  teams are averaging 12.3 total shots per game & 4.3 shots on target/game against them!

After losing the first 2 games of the season, Palace got 2 draws in L2 rounds vs. Newcastle & Burnley while Head Coach Neil Warnock is developing his team. They have some great pace on the front w/ Campbell, Gayle and/or Zaha and I think that they take advantage of the Everton’s poor defensive display so far in the season.

I think that we should be dealing w/ a pure -1 goals line, so I’m taking this +1.25 goals line for Crystal Palace.



Soccer Pick #3: Manchester City vs. Chelsea
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 2.75 Goals -116 / 1.86 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

Tactical battle in here! Both teams played midweek in the Champions League – few time to recover fitness levels @100%! With Chelsea having a nice 5-pts advantage in the standings over Man City, I expect them to be patient in this contest like they had last season – that’s why they were the only team to win @Man City ground in the last season! We should be dealing w/ a classic 2.5 goals line!

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