NBA Premium Play 12/05: Orlando Magic @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 517 Orlando Magic @ 518 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: Utah by 5 points

This will be the third game in four days for Orlando, but the truth is that they are currently living their best moment of the season, with two road wins in LA against the Lakers and then at Golden State. Their best lineup with Vucevic/Davis/Afflalo/Redick/Nelson is currently averaging an offensive rating of 124 and a defensive rating of 101, so the Magic are indeed a really tough team right now, especially down the stretch, where these five players are on the field together. Orlando is being excellent on pick and rolls and cuts, with their transitions being their weakest link on offense right now. 

I doubt that Utah will do a good defensive job tonight, having in account their current backcourt is formed by two poor defenders in Mo Williams and Randy Foye, while Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson aren't great defenders neither. In fact, Utah is #26 on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.85 PPP allowed this season and 0.91 PPP over the last 12 games, while they are #19 in cuts defense, in another area where they are defending worse lately than on their own season average. 

On the other hand, Utah is a top offensive rebound team and they are also quite good on post ups. However, Orlando is #4 in post up defense and #9 on transition defense, so they are a tough matchup for Utah's offense. The Magic are quite poor on pick and roll ball handler defense, but Utah has a low volume of this kind of play on their offense, so I really expect Orlando to make able to have a decent defensive game tonight.

This isn't a great spot for Orlando, but Utah offers them a good matchup both offensively and defensively. Therefore, I expect this game to be closer than the lines are suggesting, so I'll be taking the Magic in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Orlando Magic (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker