Projected Line: Miami by 12 points
This is a terrible spot for Brooklyn, as they will play their 8th game in just 12 days! After tonight's game, the Nets will have two days off, so this is really a very tough spot for Brooklyn. Brook Lopez is still out with a foot injury and this is obviously great news for Miami's defense. Brooklyn had just 4.30% of volume in post up plays last night in Orlando and with Miami being #20 in defending post ups, Lopez's absence is good news for Miami, as Brooklyn is now focused on their perimeter game on offense. Brooklyn has been shooting well from the outside over the last two games, but I believe these were two rare good performances for them on this area. At Boston, Jerry Stackhouse had a great game out of nowhere and yesterday in Orlando, Gerald Wallace had a huge game, but I believe this was a fluke, as he isn't known for being a good outside shooter.
Brooklyn has been very effective on their cuts by being #7 in the league with 1.23 PPP, but Miami is a top team in defending this kind of plays by being #5 in the league, so I expect the Heat to be able to do a good defensive job against the Nets tonight. Miami had two poor games against Cleveland and a shorthanded Spurs, but now on a competitive game, I expect them to show up and to blowout the Nets that will be shorthanded on the frontcourt and on a very tough spot. I'm taking the Heat tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment