WNBA - 653 Los Angeles Sparks @ 654 Indiana Fever
Projected line: 159 points | Indiana by 7 points
This is the last game for both teams before the Olympic Games break and so, we have some technical value in Indiana for this game, besides that this is also a perfect spot to fade the Sparks.
While the Fever will play the last game of their 4-games home stretch tonight, the Sparks will have to travel in their last game of the 1st half of the season to an Eastern opponent (the first one since mid June) and looking at the fact that this will be their 4th game in just 6 days, I think this is a clear letdown spot for them.
In the matchup battle, the Fever is a tough matchup for the Sparks. The Sparks like to play faster, score in transition and use their 2 post players in Candace Parker and rookie Ogwumike to score down low. They are bringing a nice 4-games winning streak for this contest by averaging 16 fast break points per game while averaging 36.5 ppg in the paint. The problem is that Indiana defense is built to slow down teams like the Sparks, as they are ranked #1 in Fast Break defense by allowing just 8.45 FB/game & ranked #6 in paint defense with 31.3 ppg allowed.
On the other side, the Sparks don’t have a good perimeter defense as San Antonio showed them in the last month for three different occasions and Indiana's playing style is similar to the Silver Stars. Indiana is #2 in 3pts% with 41.7% and they are #3 in assists/rate with 62.4%, so they are an unselfish team who is dangerous behind the line. Against poor team help defenses like the Sparks, the Fever can make some serious damage.
I expect the Fever to control the pace and tempo of the game, something that means few transition chances for the Sparks. In the half court, Indiana is a superior team and if we take in account that we might be dealing with a flat spot for the Sparks, it’s easy to understand why we have some value with Indiana and with the Under in my opinion. Therefore, I'm taking both Indiana and the Under in here.
While the Fever will play the last game of their 4-games home stretch tonight, the Sparks will have to travel in their last game of the 1st half of the season to an Eastern opponent (the first one since mid June) and looking at the fact that this will be their 4th game in just 6 days, I think this is a clear letdown spot for them.
In the matchup battle, the Fever is a tough matchup for the Sparks. The Sparks like to play faster, score in transition and use their 2 post players in Candace Parker and rookie Ogwumike to score down low. They are bringing a nice 4-games winning streak for this contest by averaging 16 fast break points per game while averaging 36.5 ppg in the paint. The problem is that Indiana defense is built to slow down teams like the Sparks, as they are ranked #1 in Fast Break defense by allowing just 8.45 FB/game & ranked #6 in paint defense with 31.3 ppg allowed.
On the other side, the Sparks don’t have a good perimeter defense as San Antonio showed them in the last month for three different occasions and Indiana's playing style is similar to the Silver Stars. Indiana is #2 in 3pts% with 41.7% and they are #3 in assists/rate with 62.4%, so they are an unselfish team who is dangerous behind the line. Against poor team help defenses like the Sparks, the Fever can make some serious damage.
I expect the Fever to control the pace and tempo of the game, something that means few transition chances for the Sparks. In the half court, Indiana is a superior team and if we take in account that we might be dealing with a flat spot for the Sparks, it’s easy to understand why we have some value with Indiana and with the Under in my opinion. Therefore, I'm taking both Indiana and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Under 163.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 654 Indiana Fever (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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