Projected line: United States by 60 points
This is surely the biggest spread I've ever bet on, but I think we have some value on the US team, as I expect them to win by 60 points or more. The line of 54 points certainly represents a lot of points and this means that the US team will have to win every quarter by an average of 15 points to get a win by 60 points. However, they have huge edges in every facet of the game.
Tunisia is coming from a tough battle against Nigeria, where they fought really hard the whole game. Nigeria is a pretty nasty physical team, so I don't think that with just one day to recover between games and with almost every player not used to play in such a tough spot, I don't think the Tunisian team will have anything left in the tank for today's game. Note that Tunisia scored just 15 points in the first half against Nigeria, who also dominated the glass with 20 offensive rebounds while forcing 12 steals and 19 turnovers from Tunisia. USA's biggest strength is their tremendous defensive pressure that tries to force turnovers and let's not forget that Tunisia's PG Marouan Kechrid played the entire game against Nigeria! He will surely ran out of gas in today's game.
The Tunisian team lost against China by 31 points in a friendly game a couple of weeks ago and they also lost by 39 points against Spain, just before this tournament, however Spain's defense isn't aggressive in pressuring the ball handler and Tunisia managed to "just" commit 13 turnovers, while grabbing 14 offensive rebounds (Pau Gasol played just 15 minutes, while his brother Marc played just 8 minutes).
If you think the US team will feel sorry for crushing Tunisia, think twice. Do you really believe Westbrook, Harden or any other bench player won't take advantage of extended playing time to make a statement today, especially when they are being compared to the 1992 Dream Team, who crushed every team in sight? Therefore, I believe Tunisia will get absolutely crushed on this contest and so, I'll take the United States to cover the spread in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on United States (-53,5) @ -105 / 1.952 on Pinnacle
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