Projected lines: 149 points | Spain by 8 points
I've watched the two games between these two teams before this competition and in both occasions, Australia was very competitive and they had real chances of winning the games. The key was always a good defensive positioning and tough play in every singly play. According to my numbers, both games were slow paced ones, so I'm expecting a similar scenario for today. Spain will be missing Navarro today, so they'll be without some of their outside shooting ability for today. My projected line for this contest is 149 points, while I expect Australia to lose by single digits points, so I'll take both Australia and the Under in here.
Spain had an easy win against China in an atypical game from the Spanish team: no defense and winning via outscoring. Still, the Spanish team had problems at the start of the game with just 3 points in the first 5 minutes, with some Chinese players in foul trouble, China changed their defense into zone and Spain torched them with a crispy ball movement and a deadly 3pts shooting. It was just too easy for them, as they shot 11-19 3pts! China was too soft on defense and Spain let the Chinese team play loose as well.
Now on this game against Australia, things will be different as we are talking about a much more aggressive team in both ends of the floor and that will make Spain have more attention on defense. Australia lost against Brazil mostly due to their high number of turnovers, but defensively they did a good job by allowing the Brazilian team to shoot just 41.2 % FG. As I've referred on my preview, Australia is a very well organized team and with a great motor, so it won't be easy for any team to squash them.
I've watched the two games between these two teams before this competition and in both occasions, Australia was very competitive and they had real chances of winning the games. The key was always a good defensive positioning and tough play in every singly play. According to my numbers, both games were slow paced ones, so I'm expecting a similar scenario for today. Spain will be missing Navarro today, so they'll be without some of their outside shooting ability for today. My projected line for this contest is 149 points, while I expect Australia to lose by single digits points, so I'll take both Australia and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 156 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Australia (+12,5) @ -106 / 1.943 on Pinnacle
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