NBA Premium Play: Oklahoma City @ Dallas - Game 5

NBA - 517 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 518 Dallas Mavericks 

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line: Dallas by 3 points

It looks like we are involved in every possible “bad beat” in these playoffs – unbelievable! Move on…

Being tonight’s contest a potential elimination game, it’s important for us to predict the Thunder player’s mindset for this game. Will they gave up like the Lakers did in their Game 4 against the Mavericks? In my opinion this will not be the case! Unlike the Lakers, the Thunder already have defeated the Mavs in this series and to make things “easier” for them in a motivational standpoint they beat the Mavs on their floor. Also, unlike the Lakers, the Thunder is a pretty aggressive team on the offensive end - if their shots aren’t falling, they will attack and get to the FT line a lot!

In G4, the Thunder was rolling and they managed to have a 15-points lead with about 5 minutes to play. Then James Harden fouled out – a strange occurrence if we think that he played only 23 minutes and committed 6 fouls! Until then Oklahoma City was really sharing the ball and everyone was involved in the game – note that they ended the game with 23 assists vs. just 16 from the Mavs!

After that the story is well known: they stopped moving the ball while Durant and Westbrook kept taking bad shots after bad shots. The Mavericks recognized that and it was relatively easy for them to get back to the game.

Note also that the Thunder completely crushed the Mavs on the glass: 20-5 edge on the offensive boards! With both teams coming off an overtime game and having just one day off to rest I expect the Thunder to have once again a tremendous edge in this department.

I expect this contest to be a tight game decided only down the stretch. Naturally, the Mavericks have the edge with Dirk Nowitzki on the floor and w/their experience. However we are dealing with a line of 6.5 points and so we have some value for OKC in a potential close game.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Oklahoma City Thunder (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek