Friday, May 20, 2011

NBA Premium Play: Oklahoma City @ Dallas - Game 2

NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 Dallas Mavericks

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line: 195 points | Dallas by 1 

As expected, the Thunder struggled in G1 like they did in every “Game 1” of these playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki was obviously a big factor but still the Thunder wasn’t prepared to slow down the Mavs offense because Dallas scored from the outside, from the FT line and even in the paint – just look for Barea’s points in the 4th quarter.

For tonight I expect the referees to allow both teams to be more physical and ultimately this will benefit more the Thunder. In my opinion, the Thunder will be more focused in slowing down Terry and Barea than in stopping Nowitzki because he is almost unstoppable w/his mid range jumpers.

Note also that in my opinion the fatigue was a major factor for the Thunder – I remember seeing several arm fouls called early for them and basically those kind of fouls are a sign of legs that aren't moving).

Russell Westbrook played poorly by shooting 3-15 from the field and dishing out just 3 assists! I think that he will struggle with his shooting against Dallas but he has the ability to draw an extra defender when he’s attacking in the paint and he must find his team mates on the corner – this will happen more often tonight!

I also expect the Thunder to have a substantial edge on the boards tonight. That didn’t happen in G1 due to (in my opinion) the “fatigue” factor.

The Mavericks are playing really well but with the right adjustments, the Thunder will be a tough matchup for them as I’ve mentioned on my G1 analysis. I expect tonight’s contest to be a close one and that’s why I’m taking Oklahoma City in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 200.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 507 Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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