NBA Premium Card 05/12

NBA - 741 Chicago Bulls @ 742 Atlanta Hawks 

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***
These playoffs have been tough for me especially because there are some fundamental factors through the games that simply have been just too “wild” to predict!

For example…In this series, the pace factor between games 2-5 was:

GAME 2: 87.11
GAME 3: 79.16
GAME 4: 89.13
GAME 5: 80.06

As you can see, there wasn’t any correlation in those games so it was extremely hard for me to predict a correct pace factor range… However after watching game 5 and after analyzing all the games of this series, I think that tonight’s game will be way faster than G5 (or G3)…

Why?

It was not a coincidence that in both game 3 and/or game 5 the pace of the game was so slow and…the Bulls won those games by double digits points! The Hawks offense reverted to those times in which they were stagnant and ran too many isolation plays while they’ve attempted a ton of (bad) shots late in the clock. For tonight I expect a more dynamic Hawks team on the floor! For once, it is quite easy for HC Larry Drew to make adjustments after a loss: stop taking bad shots and push up the tempo!

On the other side, the Bulls are improving on the offensive end and the biggest reason is n healthy Derrick Rose and Boozer.

Rose finally (apparently) healed his ankle injury and even though he might not be 100% fit his FT’s numbers don’t lie about this statement:

Game One: 0-0
Game Two: 4-6
Game Three: 8-9
Game Four: 9-11
Game Five: 10-13

The same thing can be said for Carlos Boozer who is now way more aggressive on the offensive end. 

Bottom line, we can expect the Bulls to have their points regardless if the outcome of tonight’s game is a win or a loss.

I think that the Hawks will be a tough opponent tonight and they have legit chances to send this series to a decisive game 7. 

In the last game, the Hawks played in a “bad tempo” but still they were in the game entering the final quarter! Obviously Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford sucked hard in a game like this due to their tendency to take bad shots and hold the ball and they combined to shot 7-24 FG – as a note, In Game 4, these two players shot 14-25 from the field!

Jeff Teague is playing really well and the Hawks are just punishing with Teague all the extra attention that the Bulls are giving to JJ and Jamal Crawford. 

I expect this contest to have a nice tempo with the Hawks looking to push up the pace of the game and being more aggressive - surely they will have more free throws than in G5 (just 17!). In my opinion they have legit chances to beat the Bulls and I’m taking them + Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 742 Atlanta Hawks (+3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 741/742 Over 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes