NBA - 503 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 504 Dallas Mavericks
***SINGLE DIME PLAY***
Projected line: 199 points | Dallas by 9 points
Eventually this will be a fun series to watch as I expect the winner of this series to be decided “only” in 6 or 7 games.
For tonight I feel that the Mavericks are the better prepared team and this is crucial for the first game.
The Thunder is a young team and their head coach Scott Brooks isn’t an exception – inexperience is a factor! So far in the playoffs, the Thunder had tremendous problems in “games 1”. They barely defeated the Nuggets in the first game of the first round – a 107-103 win as they allowed the Nuggets to shot 50.6% from the field. Then they lost at home against the Grizzlies 101-114 even though the Grizzlies had only one day to rest while the Thunder was more rested and prepared. They knew that the Grizzlies biggest strength was their frontcourt and it was imperative to slow them down and still what happened? The Grizzlies scored 52 points in the paint while Randolph and Gasol combined to shot 21-33 from the field!
My point is that the Thunder coaching staff already has shown some problems in making the right adjustments for the first game of the series.
Obviously the Mavericks are a way new challenge for the Thunder when compared to the Nuggets and the Grizzlies.
Using regular season numbers here are the 2 biggest differences amongst those 3 teams:
Points in the paint ranks:
Dallas 29th – 36.2ppg
Memphis 1st – 50.5 ppg
Denver 6th – 43.8ppg
Long range eFG% efficiency:
(from 10-15 feet)
Dallas 43%
Memphis 38%
Denver 39%
(from 16-23 feet)
Dallas 45%
Memphis 38%
Denver 40%
Memphis and Denver were terrific teams that wanted to score down low, the Thunder was “forced” to pack the lane and that strategy worked pretty well because they have Perkins and Collison to patrol the paint. They forced those two teams to beat them from the outside by putting an extra pressure on the perimeter to perform and they were successful. Obviously that won’t work against Dallas… (just look for the %difference between Dallas vs. Denver and Memphis from the outside).
On the other side, the Mavericks will have a tough task to stop the Thunder…
Unlike Portland and the Lakers, the Thunder has an aggressive PG in Russell Westbrook that will torch Jason Kidd; Unlike Portland and the Lakers, the Thunder is an aggressive team that will attack and go to the FT line – Portland averaged 21.5 FT/game against the Mavs, the Lakers averaged 20.0 FT/game…the Thunder is averaging 31.5 FT/game! Finally, the Thunder plays in a faster pace than POR and/or LAL so this will not be a tradition half court series!
NOTE: We will take the Thunder in this series in the future but not for tonight due to their problem in making the right adjustments for “games 1”.
For tonight I’m taking the Dallas and the Over.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek
***SINGLE DIME PLAY***
Projected line: 199 points | Dallas by 9 points
Eventually this will be a fun series to watch as I expect the winner of this series to be decided “only” in 6 or 7 games.
For tonight I feel that the Mavericks are the better prepared team and this is crucial for the first game.
The Thunder is a young team and their head coach Scott Brooks isn’t an exception – inexperience is a factor! So far in the playoffs, the Thunder had tremendous problems in “games 1”. They barely defeated the Nuggets in the first game of the first round – a 107-103 win as they allowed the Nuggets to shot 50.6% from the field. Then they lost at home against the Grizzlies 101-114 even though the Grizzlies had only one day to rest while the Thunder was more rested and prepared. They knew that the Grizzlies biggest strength was their frontcourt and it was imperative to slow them down and still what happened? The Grizzlies scored 52 points in the paint while Randolph and Gasol combined to shot 21-33 from the field!
My point is that the Thunder coaching staff already has shown some problems in making the right adjustments for the first game of the series.
Obviously the Mavericks are a way new challenge for the Thunder when compared to the Nuggets and the Grizzlies.
Using regular season numbers here are the 2 biggest differences amongst those 3 teams:
Points in the paint ranks:
Dallas 29th – 36.2ppg
Memphis 1st – 50.5 ppg
Denver 6th – 43.8ppg
Long range eFG% efficiency:
(from 10-15 feet)
Dallas 43%
Memphis 38%
Denver 39%
(from 16-23 feet)
Dallas 45%
Memphis 38%
Denver 40%
Memphis and Denver were terrific teams that wanted to score down low, the Thunder was “forced” to pack the lane and that strategy worked pretty well because they have Perkins and Collison to patrol the paint. They forced those two teams to beat them from the outside by putting an extra pressure on the perimeter to perform and they were successful. Obviously that won’t work against Dallas… (just look for the %difference between Dallas vs. Denver and Memphis from the outside).
On the other side, the Mavericks will have a tough task to stop the Thunder…
Unlike Portland and the Lakers, the Thunder has an aggressive PG in Russell Westbrook that will torch Jason Kidd; Unlike Portland and the Lakers, the Thunder is an aggressive team that will attack and go to the FT line – Portland averaged 21.5 FT/game against the Mavs, the Lakers averaged 20.0 FT/game…the Thunder is averaging 31.5 FT/game! Finally, the Thunder plays in a faster pace than POR and/or LAL so this will not be a tradition half court series!
NOTE: We will take the Thunder in this series in the future but not for tonight due to their problem in making the right adjustments for “games 1”.
For tonight I’m taking the Dallas and the Over.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek
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