NBA - 511 Chicago Bulls @ 512 Miami Heat
***SINGLE DIME PLAY***
***SINGLE DIME PLAY***
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Projected line: 175 points | Miami by 9 points
So far both the Eastern and Western conference finals are having the same pattern: the home team has won the game 1 just to lose the home court advantage in the next game. Yesterday, the Mavericks went on the road and defeated the Thunder but for this contest I just don’t think the same thing will happen with the Bulls…
First of all, we are not dealing with the “same spot”! In the OKC/DAL series, between G2 & G3 both teams had only one day off to rest. In this series we are talking about 3 full days of rest! This is extremely important not only because the emotional edge that the losing team is carrying for the next game doesn’t have the same impact but also because it allowed the Heat to rest their superstars. In my opinion the Bulls will have a better spot to be competitive in the next game – next Tuesday.
In terms of matchups it was pretty clear one thing after 2 games of this series: the Bulls can’t score close to the basket!
Game 1:
At the rim: 15-29 FG
From 3-9 feet: 4-10 FG
From 10-15 feet: 0-7 FG
Total: 19-46 FG – 41%!
Game 2:
At the rim: 14-22 FG
From 3-9 feet: 3-18 FG
From 10-15 feet: 0-5 FG
Total: 17-45 FG – 37%!
The difference between G1 & G2 for the Bulls was their efficiency from the outside. In G1 the Bulls shot 10-21 3pts while in G2, the Bulls hit only 3-20! The Bulls are being forced to hit shots from the outside and this is pretty dangerous for them!
On the other side, the Heat is just pounding the Bulls down low! In G1, they scored 46 points in the paint and in G2 the number was 50 points! What has been their problem? They shot 4-18 FG from 16-23 feet in G1 and 4-16 FG in G2! If somehow the Heat has a respectable game from the outside, then the Bulls would have been in trouble.
Finally we have the X factor of G2: rebounding! The Bulls completed crushed the Heat in game 1 but the Heat was “OK” in this department in G2. Haslem and Mike Miller came off the bench and they are nice individual rebounders while the Heat starters did a better job in boxing out. I expect the same pattern for the rest of the series… the Bulls have the edge but it is a slight edge.
For tonight I expect both teams to keep defending well but without a substantial edge on the boards, the Bulls offense will have some problems to score while the Heat is better down the stretch. Take Miami as my Double Dime Play and the Under as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek
Projected line: 175 points | Miami by 9 points
So far both the Eastern and Western conference finals are having the same pattern: the home team has won the game 1 just to lose the home court advantage in the next game. Yesterday, the Mavericks went on the road and defeated the Thunder but for this contest I just don’t think the same thing will happen with the Bulls…
First of all, we are not dealing with the “same spot”! In the OKC/DAL series, between G2 & G3 both teams had only one day off to rest. In this series we are talking about 3 full days of rest! This is extremely important not only because the emotional edge that the losing team is carrying for the next game doesn’t have the same impact but also because it allowed the Heat to rest their superstars. In my opinion the Bulls will have a better spot to be competitive in the next game – next Tuesday.
In terms of matchups it was pretty clear one thing after 2 games of this series: the Bulls can’t score close to the basket!
Game 1:
At the rim: 15-29 FG
From 3-9 feet: 4-10 FG
From 10-15 feet: 0-7 FG
Total: 19-46 FG – 41%!
Game 2:
At the rim: 14-22 FG
From 3-9 feet: 3-18 FG
From 10-15 feet: 0-5 FG
Total: 17-45 FG – 37%!
The difference between G1 & G2 for the Bulls was their efficiency from the outside. In G1 the Bulls shot 10-21 3pts while in G2, the Bulls hit only 3-20! The Bulls are being forced to hit shots from the outside and this is pretty dangerous for them!
On the other side, the Heat is just pounding the Bulls down low! In G1, they scored 46 points in the paint and in G2 the number was 50 points! What has been their problem? They shot 4-18 FG from 16-23 feet in G1 and 4-16 FG in G2! If somehow the Heat has a respectable game from the outside, then the Bulls would have been in trouble.
Finally we have the X factor of G2: rebounding! The Bulls completed crushed the Heat in game 1 but the Heat was “OK” in this department in G2. Haslem and Mike Miller came off the bench and they are nice individual rebounders while the Heat starters did a better job in boxing out. I expect the same pattern for the rest of the series… the Bulls have the edge but it is a slight edge.
For tonight I expect both teams to keep defending well but without a substantial edge on the boards, the Bulls offense will have some problems to score while the Heat is better down the stretch. Take Miami as my Double Dime Play and the Under as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek
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