NBA - 721 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 722 Memphis Grizzlies
***SINGLE DIME PLAY****
The Thunder made a strong bounce back after losing game 1 at home and defeated the Grizzlies 111-102 in game 2.
They did one important adjustment in their defense that kept the Grizzlies away from the paint. After scoring 52 points in the paint while shooting 21-34 FG at the rim; the Grizzlies scored only 34 pts in the paint in G2 while shooting just 11-26 FG at the rim! It was a successful strategy for the Thunder, however note that by putting so many pressure (and bodies) in the lane, the Grizzlies easily outrebounded the Thunder – 13-7 in offensive boards and their perimeter players enjoyed more freedom on the outside.
Yes, they shot “only” 4-11 behind the arc but their 15-25 FG shooting performance from 16-23 feet was pretty remarkable! With 3 days off to prepare this contest I expect the Grizzlies to be well aware of the Thunder strategy and I expect them to space the floor way better than in G2. Nevertheless it will be simply impossible to duplicate the same performance from 16-23 feet so there will be a natural trade off between points in the paint and “outside” jumpers.
On the other side, the Thunder showed the same problems to score against the Grizzlies! Once again they had less assists than the Grizzlies and they scored the same points in the paint as G1. Kevin Durant is having his numbers but the Grizzlies are doing a nice job in defending Russell Westbrook. They were able to turn Westbrook into his “wild version” and several times I’ve watched Westbrook over dribbling and commit silly errors (he had 4 turnovers!).
For all the Thunder domination in G2, if we look to the scoreboard and watch the Thunder’ +/- team points of their “big 3” we have this:
Kevin Durant +1 pts
Russell Westbrook +0 pts
Kendrick Perkins -7 pts
Bottom line, it weren’t those players that won G2 for the Thunder, it was their bench! The Thunder 2nd unit scored 48 points while shooting 15-23 FG & 14-15 FT’s! If that unit wasn’t so assertive, likely the Grizzlies would be fighting for the ballgame!
For today I expect the same problems for the Thunder. In the first two contests I had plays on the Under and both plays were lost, however I’ll ride the same play because I expect both teams to be more cautious on the defense and more importantly after 60 & 67 FT’s, I think that this contest will have less “free points”. Take the Under and Memphis Grizzlies -3 in this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 200.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 723 Miami Heat @ 724 Boston Celtics
***SINGLE DIME PLAY***
Projected line: 178 points | Boston by 6 points
The Miami Heat dictated both games at home and they truly deserved to win those games. The Heat “big 3” was phenomenal and they got some contribution coming off the bench as well. The X factor of those games was the Free Throws edge favoring the Heat: 32 vs. 18 and 36 vs. 22! While both teams were somehow equal in the others facets of the game such huge edge was enough for Miami to win both games.
Nevertheless, due to a better performance from the Celtics bench in G2, the Celtics were tied 80-80 with 6 minutes to go in the final quarter! Only a 14-0 run from Miami put away the Celtics!
We are yet to see the Celtics to play their traditional basketball and I expect them to bring their best effort to the court tonight. After playing poorly in the first game, Rondo and Garnett played in G2 but the reverse happened to Pierce and Allen. Shaquille O’Neal will play tonight and even though he won’t play in my opinion more than 15/20 minutes, his presence on the floor will force Miami to not use their small lineup – their most effective offensive lineup because Joel Anthony (their center in this lineup) can’t play 1*1 w/Shaq!
Because this is a “must win” game and they are playing at home, I expect the referees to allow the Celtics to be more physical tonight and so I don’t expect Miami to go +30x to the FT line like they went in the first 2 games. Wade and Lebron have been extremely efficient from the outside and this is the perfect for one of them to struggle from the field.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 724 Boston Celtics (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on The Grek
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