Projected Line: 211 points
Atlanta's defense has been struggling a lot in stopping the dribble penetrations from the opposing guards. Will Bynum shot 13-26 FG in 36 minutes and scored 31 points. Then, Kyrie Irving shot 12-20 FG and scored 28 points and on their last game against Indiana, the banged up George Hill shot 7-11 FG and even Lance Stephenson shot 6-13 FG! The reason for that is quite simple: Jeff Teague has been terrible on defense and then the Louis Williams and Kyle Korver combo doesn't scare anybody on the defensive end. Tonight against the Rockets with James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, Houston will have a nice offensive edge!
Houston is coming from two tough games in bad spots against teams that are even better than them on fast paced games, but tonight against Atlanta things should be different. They had 1 day off and this is a home-home spot for the Rockets, so they were able to rest a bit. The main question in here is to know if Atlanta will follow Houston on their fast tempo. Atlanta's pace on their last games has been slow, however they faced Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Indiana, five teams that play at a really slow pace (Cleveland is the fastest of these five teams and they have only the #18 fastest pace factor in the league!). On the other hand, Houston is #1 on game pace and with the Hawks averaging a 94.67 pace on games against teams in the top 5 in game pace, I expect this game to be a fast paced game.
Atlanta is an excellent transition offensive team, as they are #6 on fast break points per game with 16.6 ppg and #5 on transitions with 1.22 PPP, so they will try to explore Houston's horrible transition defense! I expect this game to be another very high scoring game involving the Rockets and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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