NBA - 509 Portland Trailblazers @ 510 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Denver by 12 points
On the first game between the Nuggets and the Blazers this season, Denver shot 1-13 FG from 16-23 feet and 0-22 from 3pts, on a combined "effort" from 1-35 FG from +16 feet! Denver crushed Portland in every other area by grabbing 55% of the rebounds, scored 31 fast break points and 74 points in the paint, while shooting 32-47 FG at the rim! It's important to see tonight how Portland's defense will be able to rebounds, defend the rim and also defend Denver's transition plays. Portland is a decent team on defensive rebounding by being #14 in the league by having a 73.4 defensive rebound rate, while their rim defense has been decent as well with 64% FG allowed. Their problem is that they are last in the league with 44.8 points allowed in the paint per game and Denver will pound them at the paint once again tonight.
On Portland's offense, the key will on Damian Lillard's performance as usual. Portland is #6 on pick and roll ball handler plays, while they are also #10 on pick and roll roll man plays. On the other hand, if LaMarcus Aldridge is able to have a good post up game, then Portland can have a nice offensive game. But if Denver is able to limit both Lillard and Aldridge, then Portland's offense is easily stopped. Well, Denver is #2 on pick and roll ball handler defense while allowing just 0.68 PPP and this is why Lillard shot 3-14 FG on Portland's first game against Denver. The Nuggets are coming from a game against the Warriors, another very good pick and roll team and they limited Golden State to just 3-11 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 3-6 FG on pick and roll roll man plays! Therefore, I believe Denver will stop Portland's offense tonight, while having a good offensive game. So, I believe Denver is going to have a blowout win and I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Denver Nuggets (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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