Projected Line: San Francisco by 6 points
Most people are taking Green Bay on this contest, but I can't simply agree on that. It's obvious that Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he's going to have a very tough matchup tonight a very good 49ers defense. The Packers's offensive line is simply terrible and with their running game being also a very poor unit, the 49ers will not only fully focusing on stopping Green Bay's passing game, as they will succeed in putting pressure on Rodgers. Even though he is very mobile, the truth is that Rodgers was the most sacked quarterback in the league during the regular season with 51 sacks in 16 games. San Francisco is definitely ready to make Rodgers's life a living hell today. Besides the fact that Rodgers will get super pressured today, Green Bay's receivers aren't healthy: Greg Jennings isn't still physically at 100%, Jordy Nelson is banged up with an ankle injury, Randall Cobb has struggled with illness this week and Jermichael Finley is also struggling with a hamstring injury. Now facing a team that has been impressive on their pass defense this season, I really believe the Packers will struggle offensively tonight.
On the other hand, Colin Kaepernick will have a big test today on his first playoff game. Green Bay's pass defense was very good during the regular season, mostly thanks to their great pass rush, however Kaepernick will get a considerable support from San Francisco's running game that will have a good matchup against Green Bay's unimpressive run defense. With Frank Gore, LaMichael James and Colin Kaepernick himself rushing the football quite well today, this will also open some space down the field, where Kaepernick has showed that he can make the big plays when necessary (#1 in the league in yards per pass attempt with 8.32! - for quarterbacks with more than 100 attempts). San Francisco will be dangerous on both the passing and the running game, so this will inevitably give them some good looks tonight either on the passing or in the running game.
San Francisco should be able to have a good defensive game today, as they will put Aaron Rodgers in tremendous pressure today, while Colin Kaepernick should be able to hang in there without making mistakes, as he won't be forced to throw the football a lot today, as the 49ers will have a good edge on the running game against the Packers's run defense. I expect San Francisco to outplay Green Bay on a similar way they did back in week 1 of the regular season: run the football on offense, put tons of pressure on Rodgers, while also hit the Packers with the occasional big passing play. I see San Francisco as not only the better team and also a very tough matchup for Green Bay, so I'll be taking the 49ers tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 112 San Francisco 49ers (-2,5) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Divisional - 109 Baltimore Ravens @ 110 Denver Broncos
NFL Divisional - 115 Houston Texans @ 116 New England Patriots
Baltimore had an excellent defensive effort last week against Indianapolis, but I don't think that they will be able to stop Peyton Manning today. They should be able to limit him at times, but Peyton will eventually find a way to punish a Ravens's defense that is still decent, but it isn't the top quality defense that they were over the last few seasons. On the other hand, Joe Flacco has been inconsistent this season and I don't believe that he will have a good performance on a road playoff game against a top quality defense like the Broncos's. Ray Rice is in decent form right now, but the Broncos's run defense has been one of the best this season and they won't allow Rice to have a big game today. Denver had no problems in beating Baltimore on the road by 34-17 back in week 15 and they should have another comfortable win today, as Baltimore is a quite nice matchup for them.
As I've previously mentioned on my play on the Under in the NE/HOU game, even though I expect the Texans to give a bigger fight to the Patriots than the one they showed in week 14's game, New England's much bigger explosive offensive game, in combination with their good run defense to stop Arian Foster and a very clear quarterback edge, makes me believe that New England should have another comfortable win over Houston. They won't win this game by 28 points like in week 14, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a double digits win for the Patriots once again.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 110 Denver Broncos (-3) x 116 New England Patriots (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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