Tuesday, January 15, 2013

NBA Premium Play 01/14: Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz


NBA - 711 Miami Heat @ 712 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 200 points

Utah has been shooting better from the outside, as in fact they have shot 44% 3pts on their last five games. With the Jazz having also a high volume of transition plays and a good post up game, their offense has been working well lately. On the other side, Utah's defense is #28 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #30 on spot up defense with 40% 3pts allowed, 40% FG allowed from 16-23 feet and 47% FG allowed from 10-15 feet over the last 5 games. Now against the Heat that are coming from a game where they shot 17-37 3pts at Sacramento, this isn't good news for the Jazz.

Miami won't have other option but running a lot due to the size edge that Utah has over them. On the other hand, Utah is pretty much a run and gun team on their home games, while they are also a much more aggressive team, something that sends them to the free throw line quite often. With Miami pounding Utah's poor perimeter defense and the Jazz taking advantage of their size edge over the Heat's defense, I expect this game to be a high scoring game, as this will surely be a fast paced game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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