NBA - 703 Charlotte Bobcats @ 704 Boston Celtics
Projected Line: 195 points
This is an excellent spot for Boston to have great offensive numbers, as Charlotte's defense struggles where Boston's offense is good. The Celtics had 2 days off and they are confident with a 5-1 record since Avery Bradley returned. With Bradley, the Celtics are more explosive on offense and they are now more efficient on transitions. The X factor in here has to go with how the Bobcats's defense works. With coach Mike Dunlap, Charlotte struggles in defending the perimeter, with bad close outs on the shooters and they have a strategy of packing the paint. This is why they are #28 on spot up defense, #29 on 3pts defense and #15 on 16-23 feet defense. Looking at their last five games, Charlotte is struggling even more from these areas with 62% FG from 10-15 feet, 43% FG from 16-23 feet and 40.7% 3pts allowed.This is excellent news for Boston, a team that has a high volume of outside shooting, while being #1 in the league in 16-23 feet shooting efficiency. Boston's bench has been excellent as well and so, the Celtics has a great offensive spot for tonight.
On the other hand, Charlotte's offense is based around the dribble penetrations from their guards and this has been Boston's main defensive problem this season, even though Avery Bradley has minimized this problem. There's also the transitions, where Boston's defense isn't good and Charlotte has a lot of volume. On their last game, Boston struggled against Houston on this area by allowing 24 fast break points with 9-13 FG on transition plays. Charlotte's offense with a starting backcourt of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeff Taylor and Kemba Walker has been terrible, but coach Dunalp has inserted Gerald Henderson in the lineup on their last game and that's good news for them as Henderson is a good spot up shooter. Charlotte actually had a decent shooting game at Indiana with 46.2% FG, but Indiana's frontcourt didn't let them get close from the basket and this is why the Bobcats shot just 9-17 FG at the rim. Things should be easier for Charlotte's offense today and with Boston having also a great spot to have a big offensive game tonight, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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