NFL Divisional - 113 Seattle Seahawks @ 114 Atlanta Falcons
Projected Line: Seattle by 1 point
Atlanta had the best record of the league during the regular season, but they weren't the best team in the league at all. They had a nice schedule, they won all their close games, but the truth is that they still have a lot of flaws that some teams can easily exploit. This is exactly what will happen on this game against Seattle, where Marshawn Lynch should have no problems in pounding a poor Falcons's run defense that was just #29 in the regular season with 4.8 rushing yards allowed per carry. With the Falcons needing some extra help to stop Lynch, Russell Wilson will also have some extra space to work on the passing game and with his current form, I believe that he will also explore some problems that Atlanta has been having on their secondary the whole season. The Falcons were very good in intercepting the opposing quarterback, but they were also prone to allow a lot of big passing plays at times. Russell Wilson is very confident right now and with him not having a lot of pressure on his shoulders, as Marshawn Lynch is the team's #1 weapon on offense, he should be able to explore some of the issues Atlanta's secondary will definitely show on this matchup.
On the other hand, Matt Ryan had a great regular season by using his great receivers corps. However, Seattle has an excellent secondary and they will give a lot of trouble to Ryan. It's important to note that Atlanta only faced two good pass defenses during the regular season: Denver back in week 2, when they were still adapting to all the changes they suffered during the regular season, and Arizona in week 11, in a game where Matt Ryan was intercepted 5 times and the Falcons's offense scored just 16 points. Seattle's pass defense will most definitely cause Matt Ryan a lot of problems on this game, as they won't need to give a lot of importance to the very noneffective Falcons's running game and they will be able to put most of their focus on the Falcons's passing game. Chris Clemons's injury is a huge blow for the Seahawks's defense, but Seattle has a lot of other great defenders, especially on the secondary, to limit Atlanta's offense.
I believe Seattle will most definitely have a good offensive game against a Falcons's defense that isn't good, especially against the run, while the Seahawks's defense will certainly limit Atlanta's one-dimensional offense that can be stopped by a good secondary like Seattle's. I see the Seahawks as the better team and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 113 Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NFL Divisional - 115 Houston Texans @ 116 New England Patriots
Projected Line: 45 points
We all remember how New England crushed Houston at home on Monday Night Football back in week 14. The Patriots's win by 42-14 was a very humiliating loss for Houston, but I believe they will show a lot more effort on this contest, especially on defense, as a very quality unit like Houston's defense can't allow 42 points to any team, not even to New England's high potent offense. Houston's main CB Jonathan Joseph was very limited physically in week 14's contest, but he is certainly much better now, like he showed last week against Cincinnati and with the Texans's defense fired up for this contest, I believe they will certainly have a much better performance on this game than they had back in week 14. Of course Tom Brady will still throw a couple of big plays, but with this game being played under fog conditions, I expect New England's offense to be far from repeating the 42 points scored back in week 14.
On the other hand, Matt Schaub had a very good first half of the season, but he has been struggling lately. He isn't turning over the ball often, but he isn't being impressive neither. For this contest, I expect Houston to use their running game a lot with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, in order to take a lot of time off the clock and try to keep the Patriots's offense off the field as much as possible, as they know they can't beat the Patriots on a high scoring game. Even though New England's run defense was surprisingly good during the regular season (#6 with 3.9 rushing yards allowed per carry), I believe Houston will have some success in running the football. They won't have a huge game, but it should be enough to advance a bit on the field and especially take a lot of time off the clock.
I expect Houston to have a much better performance than they had in week 14, with a much better effort on coverage and with their running game working properly and killing a lot of time off the clock. I expect New England to still win this, as they have a lot more explosion on their offense and a clear quarterback edge, but this should be a much closer game and with clearly less points scored than in week 14's game. I expect a relatively low scoring game for a contest involving New England, so I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 115/116 Under 49 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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