NBA - 705 San Antonio Spurs @ 706 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: 202 points | San Antonio by 12 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
The Hornets are coming from a win at Dallas on overtime, where the Mavericks were terrible on pick and rolls defense, with Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Kaman being terrible together on defense. This is why New Orleans shot 11-20 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 9-12 FG on pick and roll roll man plays! Dallas only made this game close because the Austin Rivers + Brian Roberts combination in the second unit didn't work at all for the Hornets, while Dallas also took advantage of the Hornets poor transition defense to score 19 fast break points with 9-12 FG on transition plays.
New Orleans will now face San Antonio at home on the third game between these two teams this season. Even though the Spurs weren't on a good spot on their last game against the Sixers, they still scored 109 points with 48.2% FG! They struggled from the 3pts line with just 32%, so they would have scored a lot more if they had a decent 3pts game as well. This is possible due to their excellent efficiency on their offense and for tonight, with 1 day of rest and just a short trip, I believe the Spurs are on a good spot to have another big offensive game tonight.
Matchup wise, the Hornets defense will struggle, as they are just #27 on spot up defense and also #27 on 3pts defense by allowing 37.2% 3pts to their opponents. They are also the 4th worst team in the league in 16-23 feet defense by allowing 41.4% FG. Considering San Antonio's excellent perimeter shooting, New Orleans is getting torched today on defense. With Eric Gordon back and with his lack of effort on defense being evident, the Hornets are also a terrible transition defensive team and they've allowed 27, 13, 15 and 19 fast break points on their last four games. San Antonio is also an excellent team on transitions, so the Hornets are definitely have a very tough time on defense today.
On the other side, with Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis back, the Hornets offense is also improving, as this also means less minutes to Austin Rivers and Brian Roberts, who have been struggling on offense. The Hornets have been having decent numbers on pick and rolls and the Spurs are just #18 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #20 on pick and roll roll man defense! The first two games between these two teams were interesting because the first one was the first game of the season for both teams, so we can't take a lot of conclusions from it, while in the second game, San Antonio struggled in closing the game by winning it 99-94, with 27-33 in the fourth quarter. I actually took the Under in that game, as San Antonio was coming from three games against "top teams" (Boston, Oklahoma City and Denver) and so, they would be on a flat spot for their game against the Hornets. They shot just 4-18 3pts, but they still shot 51.3% FG. Tonight's spot favors much more a high scoring game and so, I expect this game to have at least 200 points scored. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
***ADDED PLAY***
Looking at the fact that San Antonio has everything to have a huge offensive game tonight, I don't believe New Orleans will be able to hang with the Spurs tonight on the score, therefore I'll be also taking the Spurs in here on a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 San Antonio Spurs (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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