NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: Utah by 2 points
Dallas is coming from a home loss on overtime against New Orleans, where their pick and roll defense was terrible and they only made that game competitive due to their great efficiency on transition plays. They will now face the Jazz on the road and it seems certain to me that Utah will have a rebounding edge tonight, as Dallas is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league, even though Dallas was only completely outrebounded once since Dirk Nowitzki returned. That happened against Denver and the Mavericks were on a back to back spot, after having played an overtime game at Oklahoma City. From what I've watched from the Mavs game against the Hornets, we have to take a look at Utah's pick and rolls, as Dallas is really struggling on defending this kind of plays. However, Utah is only #29 on pick and roll ball handler plays and #15 on pick and roll roll man, while having a very low volume, therefore Dallas's terrible pick and roll defense won't get exposed tonight. Utah's offense has nothing to do with New Orleans's offense and this is going to be good for Dallas. Utah's offense is based around post ups and transition plays, where Dallas should make a decent defensive job.
On the other hand, Utah has been struggling in defending the perimeter, as they are #30 in spot up defense. Dallas is one of the best teams in long range shooting and now with Dirk Nowitzki back, they only get better on long-range shooting. Darren Collison, O.J. Mayo and Vince Carter will definitely have an offensive edge over a struggling backcourt defense of the Jazz. With Enes Kanter out, Utah will have to use Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap for more minutes and they aren't as good on defense as Kanter. Utah hasn't been playing well lately and they are struggling in choosing the best lineups. Dallas hasn't been better, but they won't get outmatched on defense by Utah, so I expect them to be very competitive tonight. Utah crushed Dallas at home in their first game of the season by taking advantage of the fact that Dallas had played and won at LA the night before against the Lakers, but I expect things to be different tonight. I'm taking Dallas in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Dallas Mavericks (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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