NBA - 805 Charlotte Bobcats @ 806 Detroit Pistons
Projected Line: 202 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Detroit is living their best moment of the season so far, with four wins in the last four games against Miami, Milwaukee, Sacramento and Atlanta. They defeated three teams with winning records, with Sacramento being the only losing team they've faced during this span, a game that ended with 200 points! For today, considering the fact that the Pistons will be playing their last home game of this span and against a losing team, I don't believe in a great defensive focus from Detroit tonight. Charlotte may be #27 on offense, but they have playing a bit better lately. Brendan Haywood and DeSagana Diop lost space in the frontcourt lineup, with Bismack Biyombo, Hakim Warrick and Tyrus Thomas playing instead of them. With this move, the Bobcats won even more mobility and quickness, so no wonder they scored 27, 22 and 20 fast break points on their last three games! These numbers are especially good, considering the fact that two of these games were played against New Orleans and Chicago, two super slow paced teams. Detroit has been a decent defensive team on transition plays, however when they don't have great effort on defense, they can also be a disaster, as shown on their span of allowing 22, 0, 15, 25 and 36 fast break points! Besides their improvement on the frontcourt, the Bobcats are also shooting better, with the healthy Gerald Henderson and Ben Gordon making the difference. Charlotte was shooting 35% FG from 16-23 feet this season, but they clearly improved on their last three games with 41% FG! They are also improving on 3pts shooting by shooting 43.3% on their last three games, while they are averaging 34.7% for the season! Charlotte also uses a lot of pick and rolls, with the Pistons defense being just #20 on this area. Detroit has been also allowing their opponents to shoot 70% FG at the rim over their last five games and with the Bobcats scoring fast break points, their guards penetrating in the basket against a poor rim defense from Detroit, an improved outside shooting from Charlotte and a poor defensive mindset from the Pistons tonight, we have a good spot for the Bobcats to have a great offensive game tonight.
Detroit's offense has been averaging a 112.5 offensive rating over their last five games and it's hard to tell where they have improved because they have improved in pretty much everything! They averaged 0.99 PPP (Points Per Possession) on pick and roll ball handler plays over their last five games, when their season average is just 0.74 PPP; they averaged 0.97 PPP on post up plays L5 games vs 0.72 PPP season average; they averaged 1.20 PPP on transitions L5 games vs 1.13 PPP season average! They have shooting a lot from the rim (+40% volume) and they are also shooting very well from the 3pts line with 43.3% 3pts over their last five games. Charlotte's interior defense is inexperienced with Bismack Biyombo and Hakim Warrick, while the Bobcats are also a poor team in defending 3pts shots from their opponents. With Detroit being red hot on offense, they won't have problems in crushing the poor Bobcats offense tonight. I believe in a relatively fast paced game in here, with both teams having a lot of offensive edges tonight, so I would be very surprised if this game doesn't have at least 200 points scored. Therefore, I believe we have a lot of edge on the Over in this contest and so, I'll be taking it in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment