NBA - 801 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 802 Toronto Raptors
Projected Line: 192 points | Oklahoma City by 3 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This isn't a great spot for Oklahoma City, who played an 8PM game last Friday at home and they will now play at Toronto on an early 1PM road game. Oklahoma City is averaging a 89.59 pace on games against slow paced teams like Toronto this season, well below their season average of 91.31! Toronto is coming from a bad home loss against Sacramento, where the key factor was the Raptors frontcourt being in continuous foul trouble! Amir Johnson got fouled out in 9 minutes! Sacramento took advantage of that to pound Toronto down low, with DeMarcus Cousins shooting 11-18 FG for 31 points and 20 rebounds, while Jason Thompson had 7-11 FG and 14 points. I don't expect the same thing to happen today, as Oklahoma City doesn't use their frontcourt a lot on their offensive moves.
Toronto with Kyle Lowry back has been a good pick and roll ball handler defensive team (#3 in the league) and this can make the Thunder's offense struggle today, as they have a lot of volume on this kind of plays. It's obvious that Toronto's gameplan for today is to make this game a half court contest, as Oklahoma City has a tremendous physical edge over Toronto and if this game was played as an open court game, the Raptors would get absolutely crushed. Toronto's offense has been having nice numbers on pick and rolls due to Jose Calderon's excellent passes, but unlike Sacramento who was #30 on defending pick and rolls, Oklahoma City is the best defensive team in the league on pick and roll ball handler plays by allowing just 0.67 PPP (Points Per Possession) to their opponents.
If we add Oklahoma City's poor spot for today, I believe this game will be a relatively slow paced game, with both teams being able to have a good defensive job today. Therefore, looking at the high totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
***ADDED PLAY***
Looking at Oklahoma City's poor spot, I expect Toronto to be highly competitive at home today on a bounce back spot for them, after losing badly against Sacramento last Friday night. Therefore, I'll be taking the Raptors plus the points in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Toronto Raptors (+7) @ -110 / 1-91 on Bookmaker
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