Olympic Games 08/08: Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - France vs Spain

NOTE: PLAY ADDED!

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - France vs Spain

Projected line: Spain by 6 points HT | Spain by 10 points FT

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***

Spain is being the biggest disappointment of this tournament, as they failed to cover a single spread in their first five games of this competition and when they were expected to win Group B, they finished third. However, this isn't the first time that something like this happens to Spain, as in Eurobasket 2009, they also struggled in group stage just to dominate in the knockout stage with a 20 points win over France, a 18 points win over Greece and a 22 points over Serbia in the final.

On this game, Spain has some tremendous matchup edges against France. The French team has been a good defensive team, with a strong interior defense. They held the United States, Argentina and Lithuania to "just" 40, 34 and 38 points in the paint and even without Noah, they have been solid down low. The problem is that as good as they are being, the Spanish interior offense is still too good for them. These two teams faced each other in two friendly games before the Olympics and Spain won both games despite playing without Marc Gasol and in Spain's last group stage game against Brazil, Pau Gasol dominated with 9-11 FG 25pts and 7 rebounds in just 24 minutes, with Marc Gasol (7-10 FG) and Ibaka (7-10 FG) also playing very well before the "expected choke job" from the Spanish team in the fourth quarter to avoid facing the United States until the final.

Besides the inconsistency from Navarro and Fernandez, Spain's main problem on this tournament has been defending pick n rolls and and in the perimeter. In their two losses against Russia and Brazil, they allowed 17-40 (42.5%) 3pts. France is a solid team, but they are simply atrocious from the perimeter. Batum has been solid, but the rest of the team just can't shoot from the perimeter and the result is a combined of 30-106 3pts for just 28%! Spain will definitely use some zone defense and the French offense will be just too one-dimensional for Spain will easily dominate them.

Even though most people might be surprised for Spain being such a considerable favorite on this contest, the truth is that this is a great spot for Spain and they will take advantage of their matchup edges and get a quite comfortable win over France. I'm taking Spain today in a Triple Dime Play! Split the wager.

NOTE: I'm playing the Under as well due to some late line movement that gave us some value!

Pick: 2 units on Spain (-3,5) 1ST HALF @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units on Spain (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units on (Single Dime Play) on Under 155 @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle