WNBA - 605 Atlanta Dream @ 606 Chicago Sky
Projected line: 155 points
My projected line for this game according to the season numbers is actually 148.5 points, however this game will have some differences from the games these two teams played on the 1st half of the season. Chicago's best perimeter player is back and Epiphany Prince was the key for the good run the Sky had very early on the season, as not only she's a good outside shooter, as her presence helps spread the floor and give more space to their dominant center Sylvia Fowles. That's why Chicago is averaging 99.29 offensive rates with Prince playing and 93.10 without her.
We can say something similar about Atlanta's best player Angel McCoughtry, who struggled with some physical problems in the 1st half of the season, missing some games because of this. According to my numbers, Atlanta is averaging 97.8 offensive rates with her and 92.8 without her, but with her back on the court in good form, I expect the Dream to run more because Angel is deadly on the open floor. And I'm not even counting with Erika de Souza, who will make her season debut with Atlanta tonight. With Erika, Atlanta gets a new powerful weapon down low and this will be the beginning of the new-look Atlanta Dream: a faster and more dangerous on offense team.
So, after reviewing the influence of these two players, my new line for this contest is 155 points and so, I see enough value on the Over in here to take it.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Over 151.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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