Olympic Games 08/12 Men's Basketball Final - United States vs Spain

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Final - United States vs Spain

Projected line: United States by 25 points

Argentina tried everything in the semi final to slow down the United States and the truth is that the pace was slower than it uses to be on a game involving the US team (75.32). The Argentinian team held the US to 16 fast break points (first time on this competition that USA scored less than 20 FB points) and they also tried as much not to foul their opponents, as US just shot 5-7 FT, also a tournament low for the American team. Argentina mixed up their defensive schemes, but the United States still shot 18-42 3pts for a solid 43% mark. The reality is that this US team is vastly superior to any team in the world. I didn't expect them to shoot so well from behind the line, but they have been constantly great in every game from this tournament. 

I successfully took Spain in both their quarter final and semi final games, as they have two good matchups against France and Russia plus their superior experience allowed them to prevail down the stretch. However, the Spanish team can't stay consistent and they have been far from the level they showed back in 2008, as in fact they are yet to deliver a solid performance from the beginning until the end of a game on this tournament. They were down by 3 points at HT against France and they were also down by 11 points at HT against Russia. The problem for Spain is that poor play on an entire half against the United States will result in a complete blowout. 

Spain's perimeter play has been inconsistent throughout the whole tournament with 24-88 (27%) 3pts on their last five games. So, their biggest advantage in this contest will be obviously be down low. However, this Spanish team is just too slow if both Gasol brothers are on the court together and the United States are just tremendous in rotating the defense and they won't give up easily.

These two teams faced each other on a friendly game just before this competition and the United States won by 101-78. Marc Gasol didn't play in that game, however note that Ibaka had a monster 8-10 FG game. Also while Spain had already a very consolidated team chemistry, the US team was still trying to find chemistry on their lineup and the truth is that they have achieved that and they look to have very good team chemistry right now. Back in Beijing 2008, Spain played great against the United States in the final, but they were a much better team than they are right now, while the United States relaxed a bit, as they had defeated Spain in the group stage by 37 points. This time I expect a complete blowout from the United States in the final and so, I'll take the US team on the spread.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on United States (-20) @ -111 / 1.90 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/12 Men's Basketball Bronze Medal Match - Argentina vs Russia

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Bronze Medal Match - Argentina vs Russia

Projected line: 151 points | Argentina by 7 points

On paper, Russia would be a tough matchup for Argentina, especially on the defensive end. Russia is the best defensive team in this competition and they showed that by holding Spain to just 67 points in the semi finals. Their perimeter defense is terrific and their frontcourt rotates well to help when it's needed. They have also more depth than Argentina, so this would really be a tough matchup for Argentina.

However, there is on key component that will make Russia struggle on this contest: confidence! Argentina is fully prepared for this contest both mentally and physically. In the semi finals, they knew they were going to lose against the United States and even though they gave their best effort, they rested their starters in the fourth quarter, with Scola playing 29 minutes, Ginobili 28 minutes, Delfino 33 minutes and Nocioni 24 minutes. So, Argentina saved their best players while this loss was so expected that didn't shake their confidence and the Argentinian golden generation is ready to try to conquer another medal for their country on this contest.

But we can't say the same against Russia. They believed they could beat Spain in the semi finals and they were indeed leading the game at halftime by 11 points just to monumentally choke in the fourth quarter with a ridiculous number of turnovers (7 TO in 10min), a bunch of consecutive free throws missed (4-10 FT in 4Q) and a completely ridiculous shot selection that was of the fact that no Russian player knew what to do with the ball in the last minutes of the game. If Russia isn't already a good jump shooting team, they will just be worse today with their lack of confidence. 

If this game gets close at the end, can you trust Russia against Ginobili and his veteran friends? No way! I expect a relatively slow paced game with the Russian defense causing a tough matchup to Argentina. Therefore, I don't expect a great Argentinian offensive game today, as any lack of defensive effort from a Russian player will result in an immediate benching by coach Blatt, as it has been happening throughout the whole competition. On the other hand, the lack of confidence from the Russians on the offense will indeed make them have a very poor offensive game due to their bad shooting, even from the FT line. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Argentina in a game with poor offensive efficiency from both teams and so, I'll take both Argentina and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 156 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Argentina (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Olympic Games 08/11 Men's Soccer Final - Brazil vs Mexico

Olympic Games - Men's Soccer Final - Brazil vs Mexico

Brazil is trying to win their first gold medal ever on the Olympic Soccer tournament, the only major soccer competition they have never won. They are by far the most talented team in the tournament and their starters are stars in some of the best teams in the world. Their path to the final has been quite easily, as none of their opponents could handle their talent, especially on offense. Brazil has been allowing goals in every game until now except in the semi finals and in some ways, they remind me of the USA men's basketball team. They know they are vastly superior to their opponents and so, they become sloppy and careless on the defensive end. 

However, this game is a final and with the whole country ready to celebrate the only major title they have never won, I expect Brazil to enter this game very focused, especially with the tactic change they performed in the semi finals and that they will use again today in removing a forward (Hulk) to insert combo left back/midfielder Alex Sandro to give more stability on their defensive unit, with that resulting as I've previously mentioned in their first clean sheet on this tournament.

On the other hand, Mexico entered this competition with an uninspired 0-0 draw against South Korea, but then they started gaining more dynamic with Giovani dos Santos leading the way, while becoming one of the biggest stars of this tournament by not only scoring some goals, as they was also the playmaker of the team with great assists to striker Peralta. The bad news for Mexico is that Giovani dos Santos has pulled muscle in his thigh and he will miss today's final because of that, so the offensive ability of the Mexican team has received a tremendous blow.

Even though the Mexican defensive unit is well organized, I don't believe they will be able to handle the offensive power of Brazil with Neymar and Leandro Damiao leading the way. On the other hand, with Mexico missing their playmaker, they will struggle on offense and they won't be able to create a good number of scoring chances to counter the considerable number of scoring chances that Brazil will surely have today. Therefore, I'll be taking Brazil on today's final.

NOTE: Spread also available on 5Dimes at -129 / 1.775

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (-0,75) @ -124 / 1.80 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/10 Men's Basketball - Semi Finals - Argentina vs United States

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Semi Finals - Argentina vs United States

Projected line: 190 points

These two teams faced each other in group stage, but we shouldn't pay too much attention on that game to study today's contest between these two teams, especially because their PG Prigioni didn't play, Scola didn't play in the 2nd and 4th quarters and Manu only played 25 minutes. In terms of tactics, Argentina played that game "the USA way", as according to my numbers, the pace of that game was 81.7 while their friendly game before the Olympics had had a pace of 74.50. 

With Argentina being an undersized team, the United States would have in theory a huge edge down low, but that won't happen on the court, as the US team is completely focused on 3pts shooting and they have been amazing in that, as they showed against Argentina in the group stage with 20-39 3pts! However, Argentina has a great perimeter defense and they have the best IQ on this tournament, so I expect them to give different looks to the US offense, while the United States won't take full advantage of their edge down low.

Until now, every single game involving the US on this tournament went Over the total posted, something that sent the line of this game to an incredible 195 points. However, I believe Argentina will battle hard tonight and so, we have some edge on the Under. Take the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Olympic Games 08/10 Men's Basketball Semi Finals - Russia vs Spain

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Semi Finals - Russia vs Spain

Projected line: 148 points | Spain by 9 points

This game will be a rematch from a group stage game where Russia upset Spain by 77-74. While analyzing that game, I was surprised by the slow pace of the game, as according to my numbers, that game had the second slowest pace of the entire tournament, only faster than a game between the poor teams of Nigeria and Tunisia. Still, that game ended with 151 points due to a great offensive efficiency from both teams, especially from Russia. 

Russia's defense has been terrific, as they are currently holding their opponents to just 39.5% overall, while in the quarter finals they held Lithuania to just 37% FG, 3 fast break points and 24 points in the paint. Not only they close out on the perimeter, as they also like to swarm to the ball when it gets below the FT line. On the other side, Spain's inconsistency is mostly due to their backcourt, as in the frontcourt Pau Gasol has been dominating his opponents. Rudy Fernandez was injured in the last months prior to this competition and Juan Carlos Navarro is also battling some injuries, while Jose Manuel Calderon has been prone to disappearing in the games. Against France in the quarter finals, Spain shot 4-20 3pts, with Rudy 3-9 FG, Navarro 3-11 FG, Calderon 2-6 FG and Llull 3-7 FG. 

I expect this game to be played in the half court like the group stage game between these two teams. With both teams struggling to get shots, the current line of 152.5 points demands a great offensive efficiency to be achieved by both teams once again. The line opened at 148 points and that is my line, but the market is the pushing the line up, creating a lot of value on the Under in the process. 

In terms of spread, I had Spain -6 in the group stage game and they lost it outright, however Russia did some stuff in that game that I don't believe they will repeat today. Their PG Shved has been erratic lately and he was yanked by the Russian head coach in that game by playing just 7 minutes. And then what happened? His backup Ponkrashov played his best game ever in the NT with 6-8 FG 14 points and 11 assists! Russia isn't a good outside shooting team with 27-83 (32%) 3pts in all games excluding their game against Spain, where they shot 9-23 3pts. I've also already mentioned in the past that Russia isn't a good FT shooting team and they had just 61% FT against Lithuania (22-36 FT) and 66% FT throughout the whole tournament. However against Spain, they managed to hit 10-11 FT! Russia's best player Andrei Kirilenko shot just 2-8 FG against Spain, but all the Russian role players played brilliantly and because of that, Russia was able to defeat Spain. 

On the other side, no matter what Russia tries, Pau Gasol will dominate and he has already shown that in the first game by shooting 8-13 FG. Marc Gasol was outplayed by Mozgov in the first game, but he is coming from his best performance in the tournament so far against France so I expect a bounce back game from him. With a slightly better game from the Spanish guards, Spain will have enough edges to comfortably beat Russia today, as in the first game, Spain entered the game with a 20-2 lead and also had a 15-4 run at the start of the 4th quarter. We are talking about a 35-6 run! Spain has a lot more experience at this level and I expect them to get revenge over Russia today and have a very comfortable win today. I'm taking both Spain and the Under on this contest.   

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Spain (-5,5) @ -107 / 1.935 on Pinnacle

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 152,5 @ -103 / 1.971 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/08: Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - United States vs Australia

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - United States vs Australia

Projected lines: 185 points | United States by 29 points 

The last time these two teams faced each other was in the previous Olympics in Beijing, where the United States won by 116-85. I don't believe it will be that lopsided, even though Australia doesn't have a shot at winning the game of course. 

Australia is a tough team that will be very physical on today's game. They have a physiology of not allowing easy baskets to their opponents and so expect the Aussies to foul the US team as much as necessary to prevent the Americans to easily score on transition plays. Therefore, Australia will try to slow the pace down against the US team.

With some depth and good size, Australia will surely defend the paint, not allowing easy shots down low. They also have a good transition defense and so, they have all the necessary conditions to make the US have a subpar game on offense today, which means they shouldn't be able to score 115 points or more today.

On the other hand, Australia's main problem on offense is their lack of outside shooting, even though they improved that in their last two games with 13-24 and 11-30 3pts. They also have a good pick n roll offense and with USA being so dominant throughout this whole competition, they might underestimate Australia today. I expect a relatively slow paced game in here, especially for a game involving the United States and with Australia keeping this score relatively respectable. Therefore, I'll take both Australia and the Under today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Australia (+33) @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/08 Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Brazil vs Argentina

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Brazil vs Argentina

Projected line: 155 points | Argentina by 1 point

This is a very interesting game because not only it puts head to head two teams with a similar level, as there is a big rivalry between these two countries. These two teams know each other very well and Brazil's coach is actually the coach that led Argentina to their Olympic title back in 2004. These two teams have also faced each other in last year's final of FIBA Americas, where Argentina won by 5 points, in a tournament played in Argentina and where Brazil didn't have Nene, Varejao and Barbosa on their roster at the time.

Matchup wise, I believe Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of big men, which should translate into a rebounding edge for the Brazilian team. Brazil is also defending quite well, especially on the perimeter (allowing just 28% 3pts!), something that can make Argentina struggle big time, as most the Argentinian offense usually comes from the perimeter. Argentina's starting PG Prigioni is struggling badly with kidney stones and he might not even play today, but even if he does, he won't surely be at 100%, something that will make Argentina struggle even more on offense, as Argentina lacks depth to stay competitive without one of their stars on the court at 100%. 

On the other hand, Brazil should use their frontcourt edge to pound Argentina down low on offense, even though Nene hasn't been aggressive at all on this competition. Still, Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of athleticism and they will make the veteran Argentinian team throughout the whole game. Argentina's only clear edge for this contest will exactly come from their experience that will make them a very tough team down the stretch. However, Brazil with edges in terms of depth, frontcourt and with a very improved defense, I believe they will this game at least highly competitive. With them getting 4,5 points on the current line, I'll be taking Brazil today. As I believe Argentina will heavily struggle on offense, I expect the Argentinian team to make a big effort on defense to try to stop the Brazilian offense, something that will make this contest a very physical one, without a lot of offensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll also take the Under in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 159,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (+4,5) @ -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/08: Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - France vs Spain

NOTE: PLAY ADDED!

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - France vs Spain

Projected line: Spain by 6 points HT | Spain by 10 points FT

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***

Spain is being the biggest disappointment of this tournament, as they failed to cover a single spread in their first five games of this competition and when they were expected to win Group B, they finished third. However, this isn't the first time that something like this happens to Spain, as in Eurobasket 2009, they also struggled in group stage just to dominate in the knockout stage with a 20 points win over France, a 18 points win over Greece and a 22 points over Serbia in the final.

On this game, Spain has some tremendous matchup edges against France. The French team has been a good defensive team, with a strong interior defense. They held the United States, Argentina and Lithuania to "just" 40, 34 and 38 points in the paint and even without Noah, they have been solid down low. The problem is that as good as they are being, the Spanish interior offense is still too good for them. These two teams faced each other in two friendly games before the Olympics and Spain won both games despite playing without Marc Gasol and in Spain's last group stage game against Brazil, Pau Gasol dominated with 9-11 FG 25pts and 7 rebounds in just 24 minutes, with Marc Gasol (7-10 FG) and Ibaka (7-10 FG) also playing very well before the "expected choke job" from the Spanish team in the fourth quarter to avoid facing the United States until the final.

Besides the inconsistency from Navarro and Fernandez, Spain's main problem on this tournament has been defending pick n rolls and and in the perimeter. In their two losses against Russia and Brazil, they allowed 17-40 (42.5%) 3pts. France is a solid team, but they are simply atrocious from the perimeter. Batum has been solid, but the rest of the team just can't shoot from the perimeter and the result is a combined of 30-106 3pts for just 28%! Spain will definitely use some zone defense and the French offense will be just too one-dimensional for Spain will easily dominate them.

Even though most people might be surprised for Spain being such a considerable favorite on this contest, the truth is that this is a great spot for Spain and they will take advantage of their matchup edges and get a quite comfortable win over France. I'm taking Spain today in a Triple Dime Play! Split the wager.

NOTE: I'm playing the Under as well due to some late line movement that gave us some value!

Pick: 2 units on Spain (-3,5) 1ST HALF @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units on Spain (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units on (Single Dime Play) on Under 155 @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/08: Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Russia vs Lithuania

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Russia vs Lithuania

Projected line: Russia by 4 points

Russia won Group B with four wins in their first four games and then a loss in a meaningless game against Australia. They looked impressive with a very solid defense and with a good enough offense to make them highly competitive. They are favorites to win this game, but Lithuania offers them a tough matchup. This version of Russia plays quicker and has a better offense than the Russian versions from the previous years, but the fact that play more open than usual will give chances to Lithuania, who definitely possesses enough offensive power to go head to head against the Russian offense.

This is especially truth as the Russian offense has shown some weakness in the group stage that might hurt them sooner or later. They have problems at the FT (just 68% FT) and their outside shooting is very inconsistent. On the other hand, Lithuania is one of the best FT shooting teams in the competition (81% FT so far) and they are surely more consistent from the outside. Barring a blowout loss against Argentina in the first game, Lithuania has always been very competitive in all their games, including against the United States, winning them or losing by single digits. These two teams know each other very well and therefore, I expect a hard fought game with the winner being only decided down the stretch. Looking at the current lines, we have value on Lithuania at this spread and so, I'll take them in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Lithuania (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Olympic Games 08/06: Women's Soccer - Canada vs United States

Olympic Games - Women's Soccer - Canada vs United States

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Canada has very surprisingly reached semi finals on this tournament and it was even more surprising how they reached this stage of the competition. They were third on their group and they only qualified for the quarter finals because they were one of the best third placed teams in the competition. Then, in the quarter finals, they faced the home team who was one of the weakest teams still present in the competition and who were on a letdown spot after a huge win over Brazil, besides looking extremely nervous throughout the whole match.

They will now face the American team, who is the world's best team in women's soccer. They might not be the current world champions because they lost a penalty shootout against Japan in the final, but their consistency on major competition and consequent super experience they have at this level make them extremely (if not close to impossible) hard to beat. Canada is a very inexperienced team at this level, they lack the quality of the American players and the head to head between these two teams (USA leads Canada 43-3-5!) that shows that Canada is winless in the last 26 games against USA makes me believe that the American team will very comfortably outplay Canada today and get a good win today. Therefore, I'll be taking the US team in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on United States (-1) @ -132 / 1.758 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/06: Women's Soccer - France vs Japan

Olympic Games - Women's Soccer - France vs Japan

The reigning world champion Japan is a very solid team, who relies on their great defense to be able to be competitive against the other top teams. They don't have a great offense, just a very tactically disciplined team, as shown in their last game against Brazil, where their laid back on a very organized formation and then trying to attack very quickly on fast breaks. This tactic worked perfectly for them as they defeated Brazil by 2-0 and today against France, I expect Japan to try exactly this very same tactic.

On the other hand, France has been a very impressive team over the past year and after riding on an impressive winning streak, they lost in group stage against the United States, on a very good match where France really had poor luck on their 2-4 loss. After that game, France crushed North Korea by 5-0 and defeated Colombia by 1-0, while in the quarter finals they defeated Sweden by 2-1, in a revenge game for France from the third place match in last year's World Cup. 

France is a team on a rise and I actually see value on a pk line. I expect this game to be extremely close, but I give some edge to France due to the fact they have probably the best striker in the tournament in Marie-Laure Delie. Due to Japan's playing style, I expect this game to have very few scoring chances and so, I'll take the Under in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on France pk @ +101 / 2.01 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/06: Men's Basketball - Great Britain vs China

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Great Britain vs China

Projected line: 157 points

This is a game between two teams already eliminated, so I expect them to have zero motivation on playing defense, while trying to outscore their opponents in order to leave this competition at least with one victory. The Chinese defense is by far the weakest in the competition and they can't stop their opponents from crushing them in the boards, as their opponents have grabbed 12, 13, 21 and 18 offensive rebounds against them so far on this tournament. They also can't defend in transition and their first four opponents on this tournament pounded them with 10, 13, 13 and 21 fast break points.

On the other hand, the British team has been improving their offense throughout this competition. They are still very dependent from Deng and they faced good defensive teams that defended Deng very well, as for example Australia limited Deng to 3-15 FG and 9 points in their last game. I don't believe the Chinese defense will be able to stop him and so the British should be able to pound the poor Chinese defense like the other teams did it during this group stage.

China has just one weapon: their outside shooting. I've previously mentioned how good the Brazilian interior defense is and that was clear in their last game against China, where they held Yi Jianlian to just 1-9 FG. As I don't expect a big effort from the British defense today, I believe Yi will have a bounce back game today.

Therefore, I expect both teams to be able to achieve good offensive performances today, where their defensive efforts will be little to none. So, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 152,5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/06: Men's Basketball - Argentina vs United States

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Argentina vs United States

Projected lines: 178 points | United States by 28 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This isn't a very important game for Argentina, as they will most likely be third on this group and as we are talking about a veteran team with so little depth, I expect them to rest their key players today as much as possible, especially when the quarter finals are already next Wednesday. Argentina, just like the other teams, will play their 5th game in 10 days and if we look to the minutes that Scola (35, 33, 36, 25) and Manu (32, 35, 25, 28) played in their previous four games, I believe Argentina has a clear flat spot for today.

On the other hand, the United States is coming from a letdown game against Lithuania, where they played absolutely no defense. I saw in their practice report that they put a lot of effort on defense for today's contest and they will surely have some "revenge" in mind after having just able to defeat Argentina by 6 points in a recent friendly game (86-80). The US team has a huge edge in terms of depth and athleticism against the undersized Argentinian team and I believe the United States will make a statement today against Argentina after a poor game against Lithuania and so, I'll take the US team to crush Argentina today. 

I also like the Under on this contest. Every single game the US has played so far on this competition has clearly gone Over the total posted, but today I like the spot for the Under, not only due to the US mindset for this game, as also the Argentinian playing style favors that, as they defend well in the perimeter and their offense also commits a small number of turnovers (7, 12, 8, 10 so far on this competition; they also only committed 13 TO in their friendly game against USA). This will mean less transition chances for the US and consequently, a slower pace than usual in the games involving the US team. Take the United States and the Under on this contest. 

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on United States (-23) @ -108 / 1.926 on Pinnacle 

Olympic Games 08/06: Men's Basketball - Spain vs Brazil

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Spain vs Brazil

Projected lines: 145 points | Spain by 3 points

This will definitely be a very weird game, as neither team has a lot of motivation to win this game, as if they win this game and they will be second on their group and they will end up facing the US team in a potential semi final match, while if they lose today, they will be third on their group, avoiding the United States until the final. So, both teams would really rather lose this game than winning it, as shown by a poll on a very known Spanish newspaper where most of the Spanish fans want their team to lose today in order to avoid the United States until the final. Therefore, I believe this will be a tight game with the fate of this game being decided somehow on a weird fashion in the last minutes of the contest.

This isn't a first on this kind of competition, as I remember a game between France and Greece in Eurobasket 2009 where both teams were in tank mode in their last group stage contest in order to try to avoid Spain in the quarter finals. In that game, France won it by 2 points in a buzzer beater that no French player celebrated. By the way, following that win, France got crushed by Spain in the quarter finals and they were consequently eliminated from the competition at a very early stage. 

Back to Spain and Brazil. Both teams have excellent frontcourt defenses, with Spain having the Gasol brothers plus Ibaka, while Brazil has Splitter, Varejao and Nene. In fact, the Brazilian interior defense has been amazing by allowing just 36, 22, 26 and 26 points in the paint to their opponents on this competition. The Spanish playing style is relatively slow, as they like to play on a half court style trying to feed their big men, so this game will have a slow pace and with both teams having great interior defenses, it won't be easy to score points today. Brazil's offense has been erratic from the outside (excluding their game against a poor Chinese team) and so, I really believe this will be a very tight contest with a small number of points due to the team's styles. Therefore, I'll be taking both Brazil and the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 150 @ -107 / 1.93 on Pinnacle

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/06: Men's Basketball - France vs Nigeria

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - France vs Nigeria

Projected line: 147 points | France by 10 points

France is another team who pretty knows their final place in the group stage. Barring an Argentinian win over USA later today, France will be the 2nd on this group no matter what happens on this contest. So, I believe France will be without any kind of motivation for this contest and therefore Nigeria has a shot of making this contest competitive, in their last game on this competition, as barring a shocking loss from Lithuania against Tunisia by more than 12 points, Nigeria will be eliminated.

The French team is definitely rest some of their starters today and Parker who played 29 minutes against Tunisia in their last game isn't likely to play more than that today. France without Parker on the court loses a lot of their creativity and as they aren't a good jump shooting team (22-78 28% 3pts so far on the tournament), they will definitely struggle on offense, especially when Nigeria is a physical team with a good frontcourt and therefore, it won't be easy for France to score points down low against them. 

Nigeria's biggest problem has been their perimeter defense, as shown by the US team who torched them with an historic 29-46 3pts and also in their last game against Argentina, they struggle early in the game due to Argentina's 3pts shooting (11-18 3pts). With France struggling on this area, Nigeria has everything to have a good defensive game today.

France likes to play on a slow pace just like Nigeria, so there will be less ball possessions than usual and looking at the fact that Nigeria has been dominating the boards and as I expect the Nigerian team to show a bigger effort than France today, I believe Nigeria will make this game closer than expected and so, I'll take Nigeria today. As this game will be played on a slow pace and looking at how both teams won't have an easy task on offense today, I'll also take the Under in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 152 @ -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Nigeria (+15) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Olympic Games 08/06: Men's Basketball - Russia vs Australia

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Russia vs Australia

Projected lines: 157 points | Russia by 4 points

This is a game between two teams who already know in which position they will end this group stage. No matter what happens today, Russia will win this group, while Australia will qualify in the fourth position. So, this will be a non-competitive game between two teams with no major motivation to win this game, but also without any kind of pressure to win and so, they will rotate more their teams, allowing the bench players to have more minutes than usual. 

Russia is coming from two very tough games in a row against Brazil and Spain, with the Russian team winning both games down the stretch, in very tight affairs. In their last game against Spain, Kirilenko played 36 minutes and Ponkrashov 38 minutes, with four of their players being on the court for more than 27 minutes. So, I really believe Russia will have a physical and psychological letdown on this contest after securing their group win on these two close contests.

On the other hand, Australia is coming from their best offensive game of the tournament against Great Britain, where they outscored the British team in the second half by 70-29, something that allowed the Australian coach to rotate the team in the fourth quarter of the game. Mills with 30 minutes played and Ingles with 32 minutes were the only players who played more than 30 minutes, so the Australian team should be fresh for today, especially when they are coming from games against Great Britain and China, in games very far from the competitive level Russia faced against Brazil and Spain. 

Australia already knows they will face the United States in the quarter finals and so, I expect them to make a big effort today, as this will be their last winnable game they'll have on this competition. The Australian offense has been improving game after game on this competition and after starting this tournament with 4-22 and 4-24 3pts, they shot 8-24 and 13-24 3pts in their last two games. They are also very good in creating fast break points with 14, 18, 13 and 27 fast break points scored in their games so far. With Russia lacking their normal focus on defense, I expect the Australian good effort for today to cause a lot of problems to Russia, in a clear letdown spot for them. I believe Australia will then make this game much more competitive than the lines are currently predicting and so, I'll take Australia in here. With both teams knowing already the place where they'll finish this group stage, I expect this game to be quite open and with both teams playing better offense than defense and so, I'll take the Over in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 152 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Australia (+7) @ -103 / 1.97 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/04: Men's Basketball - Argentina vs Nigeria

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Argentina vs Nigeria

Projected line: Argentina by 13 points

As I've mentioned before, Argentina isn't a very athletic team, especially on the frontcourt with Delfino, Nocioni and Scola, not to mention they have little depth, so they struggle in keeping their consistency throughout the game. On the other hand, Nigeria is coming from a supreme humiliation against the United States, in a game where they could do very little, as the US team was incredible from the 3pts line. However, Nigeria will have on this contest a clear edge on athleticism and I also believe they will dominate the Argentinian team in the boards battle, allowing them to make this game closer than the lines are predicting. Therefore, I'll be taking Nigeria plus the points today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Nigeria (+17,5) @ -105 / 1.952 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/04: Men's Basketball - Australia vs Great Britain

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Australia vs Great Britain

Projected line: 148 points

Australia has been playing some excellent defense since the start of this competition and they are coming from a game where they completely shutdown the Chinese frontcourt by allowing them just 12 points in the paint. They are a very organized team and they will face a British team today that needs a good game from their frontcourt unit in order to be competitive in their contests. Against a good Australian defense, I expect Luol Deng, Joel Freeland, Pops Mensah-Bonsu and the rest of their team mates to struggle on offense today.

On the other hand, Australia has a better backcourt, but they are struggling from the outside on this tournament, with 4-22, 4-24 and 8-24 3pts on their first three games. Both teams are quite aggressive, so I expect a lot of physical basketball to be played on this contest. My line for this contest is at 148 points and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 152.5 @ -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle

Olympic Games 08/04: Men's Basketball - Spain vs Russia

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Spain vs Russia

Projected line: Spain by 10 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Spain (-6) @ -118 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes

Olympic Games 08/02: Men's Basketball - United States vs Nigeria

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - United States vs Nigeria

Projected line: 161 points

I really love the Under on this contest. Nigeria loves to play on a super slow pace and they are a good rebounding team, while their shooting is catastrophic. Unlike Tunisia who took advantage of the US laziness on defense by making 3pts shots, Nigeria is a very poor shooting team and they near to score close to the basket via offensive rebounding or easy shots, an area where the US team is very strong, so I really believe Nigeria will heavily struggle in scoring a remotely decent number of points today.

So, the question is to know how the US team will perform on offense. The pace of this game being surely slow and Nigeria has a good defense in both the paint and the perimeter, with Aminu and Diogu playing very hard, with a lot of hustle. So, this won't be a walk in the park for the US team and they will be involved in a very physical contest. After two games where the US team saw their games go over quite easily, this line was clearly set way too high for the kind of contest this game will be. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 170 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes