WNBA - 655 Phoenix Mercury @ 656 Seattle Storm
Projected line: 152 points
Just before the All-Star, the Mercury offense wasn't working very well, as they averaged just 89.23 offensive rates on their last four games, when in the previous six games they had averaged 101.6 offensive rates! Phoenix has a solid team chemistry and they are able to produce some good offense even without injured players like Taurasi or Dupree. Those four poor offensive performances came from a very tough schedule, as they had a double OT game against Atlanta, besides playing four games in just seven days, a very uncommon tough spot on the WNBA. Now on a much better spot tonight, I expect them to comeback to the good offensive performances.
On the other hand, Seattle had a terrible start of the season in the offensive end, as they averaged just 90.27 offensive rates on the first eight games of the season, but they bounced back to average 101.9 off rates on their last eleven games. Seattle also possesses a good team chemistry and against a poor defense like the Mercury, they will certainly have a lot of space to execute their offensive game well. Sue Bird will start today even though she played in the Olympic, but she should be tired and that is likely to make her relax a bit on the defensive end.
I expect a fast paced game like Phoenix's games always are, but with an offensive efficiency much better than the linemakers are predicting, as Phoenix is being underrated without Taurasi and Dupree, while Seattle will surely also pound the Mercury's poor defense with ease. Therefore, I see value on the Over on this contest and I'll take it in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 655/656 Over 147,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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